伊拉克计划大幅提高炼油产能

　　伊拉克政府雄心勃勃地希望充分利用该国的石油和天然气储备。扩大炼油能力的计划因与伊斯兰国的战争而搁置了多年。更糟糕的是，如果无法得到外界的大力扶持，这些计划的前景仍然不容乐观。

　　欧佩克能源研究秘书处前主任Saadallah al Fathi在一份行业分析中指出，在与伊斯兰国的战争爆发前，伊拉克是欧佩克第二大出口国，该国计划在2008年开始的20年内新建5家炼油厂。当时，伊拉克的日炼油能力约为886,000桶。在那之后，新建计划唯一的进展就是开始建造卡尔巴拉炼油厂。

　　他在分析报告中称，一位匿名业内人士曾向媒体透露，伊拉克政府计划建造的新炼油厂不是5座，而是12至13座，总炼油能力为每天1425万桶至1530万桶，并有望在未来四年内进行。

　　Al Fathi对该消息持怀疑态度。他也怀疑这位匿名人士有关伊朗将帮助伊拉克发展下游业务的说法，不过这些怀疑可能并不充分：伊朗现任统治者是伊拉克拉巴迪政府的盟友，有理由相信双方已经认识到彼此合作将比竞争带来更多好处。

　　杨晓武 编译

　　原文如下：

　　Iraq Plans For Enormous Boost To Refining Capacity

　　Iraq’s government is ambitious and it wants to make the most of the country’s oil and gas reserves. Plans for an expansion of the country’s refinery network have been circulating for years, but the war with IS has put these on hold. What’s worse is that the prospects for these plans are gloomy unless it gets a significant amount of external help.

　　Before the war with IS engulfed OPEC’s second-largest exporter, plans were to add five new refineries to the network over a period of 20 years, starting in 2008. At the time, the refining capacity of Iraq stood around 886,000 bpd.

　　Since then, the only progress made has been the start of construction of the Karbala refinery, as one expert, the former chief of the Energy Study Secretarial of OPEC,notes in an industry analysis.

　　In it, Saadallah al Fathi quotes information from an unnamed industry insider who had told media that Iraq’s government is planning the construction of not five but twelve to thirteen new refineries with combined installed capacity of between 1.425 and 1.530 million bpd. All this is supposed to happen in the next four years, no less.

　　Al Fathi is right to be suspicious of this information. He is also suspicious of the unnamed source’s statement that Iran will be helping Iraq prop up its downstream industry, but these suspicions are not so well grounded: Iran’s current rulers are allies of the government of Haider al-Abadi, and it makes sense to suggest that the neighbors have realized that if they work together they may reap more benefits than if they try to compete.