天然气市场的供过于求至少将持续到2020年年中

据普氏能源资讯7月19日伦敦报道，加拿大皇家银行预计，目前全球天然气市场的供过于求至少将持续到2020年年中，并因此下调了对明年欧洲天然气价格的预测。

在一份题为《欧洲天然气战略——拔河》的报告中，该行表示，在今年夏季剩余时间里，它几乎没有看到乐观信号。

加拿大皇家银行表示:“我们认为，市场在2019年明显供过于求，到2020年供过于求的程度将更为温和，只有中国能够通过持续的需求增长来重新平衡市场。”

加拿大皇家银行表示，任何可能推高价格的需求激增都可能与天气有关，因此“难以预测”。加拿大皇家银行更新了对2020年天然气价格的预测，预测天然气价格为45便士/天，低于此前的52便士/天。

这一预测低于目前的2020年远期价格，标普全球普氏能源资讯周四对加州2020年NBP合约的估值为50.38便士/日。

标普全球普氏分析公司目前对2020年NBP的预测更为悲观，为41便士/日。

薛珂 编译自 普氏能源资讯

原文如下：

Global gas market to be oversupplied to at least mid-2020: RBC

Royal Bank of Canada expects the current oversupply on global gas markets to continue at least into mid-2020 and has cut its European gas price forecast for next year as a result.

In a report entitled "European Gas Strategy -- Tug of War", the bank said it saw few bullish signals over the remainder of the summer.

"We see the market as clearly oversupplied in 2019 and more moderately oversupplied in 2020, with really only China able to re-balance the market through continued demand growth," RBC said.

RBC said any spikes in demand -- which could push up prices -- were likely to be weather-dependent and therefore "difficult to forecast." RBC has updated its gas price deck call for 2020, forecasting an NBP price of 45 p/th, down from 52 p/th previously.

The forecast is lower than the current 2020 price on the forward curve, with S&P Global Platts assessing the Cal 2020 NBP contract on Thursday at 50.38 p/th.

S&P Global Platts Analytics current forecast for the NBP in 2020 is more bearish to market at 41 p/th.