全球一季度石油日需求量将减少250万桶

据原油新闻2020年3月9日伦敦报道，国际能源署（IEA）周一在巴黎表示，由于冠状病毒疫情爆发以及“要求”欧佩克产油国把他们假设产出水平日减350万桶至日产2500万桶，全球第一季度石油日需求量同比将减少250万桶。

IEA在其月度石油市场报告中预测，基于下半年“接近正常”的需求，全球今年全年石油日需量将减少9万桶，为2009年以来的首次年度下降，但IEA同时也承认存在很大的不确定性。

在设定不同的高油价和低油价情景后，IEA表示，在“悲观”的低油价情景下，今年全球石油日需求量可能减少73万桶。

IEA估计，第一季度“要求”欧佩克或对欧佩克原油的需要比去年第一季度日减470万桶。就今年全年而言，要求欧佩克日产2730万桶原油。

基于冠状病毒疫情爆发导致的预期需求下降以及运输需求停滞不前，IEA在发布名为《石油2020》的中期石油市场报告时还把其到2025年的5年石油需求增长预测下调至95万桶/天。

李峻 编译自 原油新闻

原文如下：

Global oil demand to plunge 2.5 mil b/d in Q1 on coronavirus, says IEA

Global oil demand is set to fall 2.5 million b/d in the first quarter compared with a year earlier due to the coronavirus outbreak, with the "call" on OPEC producers falling to 25 million b/d, 3.5 million b/d below their assumed output level, the International Energy Agency said Monday.

In its monthly oil market report, the IEA forecast a full-year reduction in demand of 90,000 b/d in 2020, the first annual fall since 2009, based on "close to normal" demand in the second half of the year, but acknowledged high levels of uncertainty.

Setting out alternative high and low scenarios, it said global oil demand could drop by 730,000 b/d this year in a "pessimistic" low-case scenario.

Its estimate of the "call" on OPEC in Q1, or need for OPEC crude, was 4.7 million b/d lower than for Q1 2019. For 2020 as a whole, it put the call on OPEC at 27.3 million b/d.

Based on reduced expectations resulting from the coronavirus outbreak, as well as stagnating transport demand, the IEA also cut its five-year oil demand growth estimate out to 2025 to 950,000 b/d annually, as it published its separate medium-term oil market report, titled 'Oil 2020.'