印度下个财年石油进口或将节省450亿美元

据俄罗斯油气网3月24日新德里报道，随着疫情在全世界蔓延，全球石油价格大幅下跌，印度国内80%的原油需要依赖进口，下个财政年度，印度石油进口的费用可能节省高达450亿美元。

原油价格每下跌1美元，印度石油进口账单就会减少15亿美元。今年国际原油价格预计将从去年的每桶65美元降至平均每桶35美元，降幅约为每桶30美元。印度预计在2020-21财政年度内全年石油进口将节省大约450亿美元。

印度媒体报道说，疫情已经使全球经济脱轨，增加了全球经济陷入衰退的可能性。印度已经面临经济增长减速，在2019- 2020财年的第3季度，印度GDP增长率下降到了4.7%。

疫情对印度经济的影响可能会在第4季度使其进一步下降。如果不立即采取政策行动，到2020-21财年，印度国内生产总值(GDP)增长率可能下滑至5%以下。

为了改善市场情绪，印度政府可能会考虑取消10%的长期资本利得税，并将股息分配税固定在25%。

李峻 编译自 俄罗斯油气网

原文如下：

India to save $45 billion on oil imports next fiscal, says CII

According to Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), with the spread of the coronavirus denting global oil prices, India, that imports 80 % of its crude oil needs, is likely to save a whopping $45 billion on oil imports next financial year, Indian ETEnergyWorld reported.

A $1 decline in the price of crude oil reduces the country's import bill by $1.5 billion. "In 2020, international crude oil prices are expected to average $35 per barrel from $65 per barrel in 2019, a fall of about $30 per barrel. India is expected to save about $45 billion on oil imports for full year 2020-21," the industry chamber said in a report.

The rapidly spreading Covid-19 has derailed the global economy, increasing the chances of a global recession setting in, it said, adding India has already been facing growth deceleration, with GDP growth having fallen to 4.7 % in 3rd quarter of 2019-20.

The impact of coronavirus is likely to pull it down further in the 4th quarter. GDP growth could slide to below 5 % in 2020-21 if policy action is not taken urgently.

In order to improve market sentiments, the government may consider removing Long Term Capital Gains tax of 10 % and fixing the total Dividend Distribution Tax at 25 %.