澳大利亚或从2024年开始进口LNG

据离岸工程网站3月27日消息 澳大利亚能源市场运营商周五表示，除非在当地开发更多天然气田、扩建管道，否则澳大利亚需要在2024年前为南部各州进口液化天然气，以避免供应短缺。

澳大利亚能源市场运营商（AEMO）在其年度天然气展望中表示，尽管过去一年承诺的天然气开发有所增加，但预计未来五年南方天然气供应量将下降35%以上。

AEMO 表示：“除非开发更多的南方供应源，推进液化天然气进口终端，或解决管道限制问题，天然气供应限制和减少天然气发电……从2024年开始，南方各州的冬季高峰期可能会来临。”

三个液化天然气进口项目正在筹划中，AGL能源计划在2022年在维多利亚州开放其终端，目前等待环保部门的批准。新南威尔士州的两个项目进度则更为缓慢。

维多利亚州对天然气的需求非常迫切，这依赖于家庭和制造商的天然气需求，预计在2023年年中至2024年年中，该州的几个近海气田将停止生产。

AEMO说：“如果生产提前停止，这可能会在2023年造成维多利亚州冬季供应高峰缺口。”

报告警告称，由于全球液化天然气市场的动态变化，预测未来五年天然气供应是否充足较为困难。

吴恒磊 编译自 离岸工程

原文如下：

Australia May Need LNG Imports from 2024

Australia will need to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 2024 for its southern states to avoid shortfalls unless more gas fields are developed locally and pipelines are expanded, the country's energy market operator said on Friday.

Despite an increase in committed gas developments over the past year, southern gas supply is expected to drop by more than 35% over the next five years, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) said in its annual gas outlook.

"Unless additional southern supply sources are developed, LNG import terminals are progressed, or pipeline limitations are addressed, gas supply restrictions and curtailment of gas-powered generation... may be necessary on peak winter days in southern states from 2024," AEMO said.

Three LNG import projects are on the drawing board, with AGL Energy aiming to open its terminal in Victoria state in 2022 pending environmental approvals. Two rival projects in New South Wales state are further behind.

The need is acute in Victoria state, dependent on gas for households and manufacturers, where several offshore gas fields are forecast to stop producing between mid-2023 and mid-2024.

"If production ceases earlier, this could create peak winter day supply gaps in Victoria in 2023," AEMO said.

It warned that forecasting whether gas supplies would be adequate over the next five years was difficult, due to changing dynamics in the global LNG market.