石油价格暴跌 非洲生产商受冲击

据3月30日Financial Times报道，油价暴跌不仅让非洲产油国面临收入损失，还让它们来之不易的市场份额中不断丢失，可能还无法重新获得。

非洲大陆的产油国，如尼日利亚、安哥拉和阿尔及利亚，无法与昔日盟友沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯的低成本竞争。而沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯正在向市场大量供应石油。

刚果共和国石油部长3月20日致函欧佩克秘书长默罕默德·巴尔金多(Mohammad Barkindo)，呼吁召开紧急会议，以找寻避免成员国陷入石油经济衰退的办法。

尽管英国、挪威和美国等非欧佩克国家的石油生产成本都相对较高，但由于经济多样化，它们并不依赖石油。

油价下跌不仅打击了本已吃紧的预算，还导致石油巨头削减了数十亿美元的支出计划。这对开采成本较高的非洲油田的长期影响可能要痛苦得多。

IHS Markit非洲首席研究分析师罗德里克·布鲁斯(Roderick Bruce)表示:“企业每天都在评估它们的整体投资组合。到2020年，非洲大陆的最终投资决定可能会触及历史低点。”

如果不进行海外油田投资，尼日利亚石油产量预计将下降35%。Rystad Energy估计，在整个非洲，推迟投资可能意味着到2025年日产量将减少20万桶。

洪伟立 摘译自 Financial Times

原文如下：

Double whammy of plunging oil and pandemic hits African producers

Collapsing oil prices have left African producers facing not only lost revenue when they most need it to tackle the coronavirus pandemic, but also a fall in hard-won market share they may never regain.

The continent’s producers such as Nigeria, Angola and Algeria cannot compete with the lower costs of erstwhile allies Saudi Arabia and Russia, who are flooding the market with oil.

In a sign of their desperation, the Republic of Congo’s oil minister wrote to Opec secretary-general Mohammad Barkindo on March 20 calling for an urgent meeting to find a way to keep member nations from sinking into recession.

Though non-Opec nations such as Britain, Norway and the US all have relatively high-cost production, due to their diversified economies they are not dependent on oil.

As well as hitting already tight budgets, the oil price drop had led oil majors to cut billions from spending plans. The longer-term impact for the comparatively costly African fields could be far more painful.

“Companies are reviewing their whole portfolios on a daily basis,” said Roderick Bruce, principal research analyst for Africa at IHS Markit, which forecasts final investment decisions on the continent could hit historic lows in 2020.

African countries are “in a very difficult position”, Bruce added, citing their higher production costs.

In Nigeria production is forecast to fall 35% without offshore field investments. Across Africa, Rystad Energy estimates delayed spending could mean a drop of 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in expected output by 2025.