3月向欧洲交付的LNG总量触新高

据Oil & Gas Journal网站3月27日报道 预计3月份对欧洲的液化天然气总交付量将达到近1100万吨，较2019年12月创下的月度纪录增长14%。对欧洲的持续供应推动正值天然气需求以两位数的速度崩溃之际。

创纪录的液化天然气供应量将可能扩大欧盟天然气库存，而欧盟天然气库存已经远远高于历史平均水平，并对已经处于历史低点的价格造成进一步的下行压力。不过，这将是欧洲进口额第一次接近甚至超过韩国和日本一个月内进口总额。

IHS Markit全球天然气首席策略师迈克尔·斯托帕德表示：“向欧洲输送液化天然气的记录是疫情对需求影响的多米诺骨牌效应。亚洲买家正在转售从美国购买的大宗商品，而投资组合卖家也在卸下多余的货物。这一切发生在欧洲天然气市场已经陷入极度困境之际。”

由于一些亚洲买家转售其在美国的货物，而投资组合卖家将其多余的货物卸载至比利时、英国和法国，西北欧的进口有所增加。预计到本月底，英国和法国的进口量将分别达到200万吨左右，而比利时可能已经装卸了100多万吨。与此同时，地中海东部地区的买家在整个冬季都在吸收大量现货，他们的进口有放缓的迹象。

据IHS称，欧洲将于下个月夏季开盘，常规库存将创纪录，需求预计将下降。随着欧洲大陆受到COVID-19的影响，短期需求预计在未来几周内大幅下降。

截至3月25日，欧盟和英国的地下储存设施已满55%，比5年历史平均水平高出21个百分点。西北欧的液化天然气库存略高于50%，但没有迹象表明，随着液化天然气大量涌入西北欧，供应量有所下降。随着产能持有者在各码头之间进行货物运输，西北欧和西班牙码头之间的部分运量正在不断重新分配。同时，管道供应也面临压力，俄罗斯2月份的管道流量已经同比下降16%。

随着欧洲吸收了越来越多的液化天然气现货，储存已经开始净注入，与去年同期相比，管道供应已经在减少。提前加仓将进一步打压三季度和冬季的交货价格。

“这种前所未有的欧洲液化天然气供应激增，肯定会造成连锁反应。库存将比正常情况提前增加，这将给第三季度和冬季交货月份的价格带来额外的下行压力，这是一个连锁反应。”

吴恒磊 编译自 Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

IHS Markit: LNG deliveries to Europe to reach all-time high in March

Total LNG deliveries to Europe in March are expected to reach nearly 11 million tonnes, a 14% hike from the previous monthly record set in December 2019. The ongoing supply push into Europe comes just as gas demand is collapsing at double digit rates.

“The record influx of LNG deliveries will likely swell EU gas storage—which are already well above historic averages—and put further downward pressure on prices that are already at historical lows. Nevertheless, it will be the first time that Europe’s imports are nearly equivalent to, or even greater than, the amount South Korea and Japan combined import in a month.”

“The record in LNG deliveries to Europe is a domino effect from the demand impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. Asian buyers are reselling volumes purchased from the US and portfolio sellers are offloading their excess cargoes as well. This all comes as European gas markets are already in extreme distress,” said Michael Stoppard, chief strategist, global gas, IHS Markit.

Northwest Europe has increased imports as some Asian buyers resell their US volumes and portfolio sellers offload their excess cargoes into Belgium, UK, and France. Imports into the UK and France are scheduled to be around 2 million tonnes each by the end of the month, while over 1 million tonnes could have discharged in Belgium. Meanwhile, Eastern Mediterranean buyers that had been absorbing large spot volumes through the winter are showing signs of slowing down their imports.

According to IHS, Europe will start summer next month with record conventional storage levels and an expected drop in demand. Short-term demand is expected to decrease substantially in the coming weeks as the continent takes the hit from the consequences of COVID-19.

EU and UK underground storage facilities were 55% full as of Mar. 25, 21 points above the 5-year historical average. LNG inventories in Northwest Europe stood slightly above 50%, with no signs of send-out abating as volumes surge into Northwest Europe (OGJ Online, Mar. 27, 2020). Some volumes are increasingly being redistributed between Northwest European and Spanish terminals as capacity holders juggle deliveries between terminals. Pipeline supplies are also coming under pressure, with Russian pipeline flows already down 16% year-over-year in February.

As Europe absorbs increasing LNG arrivals, storage has begun net injections and pipeline supply is already reducing compared to this point last year. Early storage fill will further pressure the third quarter and winter delivery prices.

“This unprecedented surge of LNG supply to Europe is certain to cause knock-on effects. Storage inventories will build up earlier than normal and that will put additional downward pressure on prices in the third quarter and winter delivery months. It is a chain reaction.”