据路透社3月30日报道,美国天然气库存将在2020年创下历史最高水平,虽然市场预计需求将大幅下降,但钻探商仍将继续生产创纪录的燃料。
此前,分析人士预测,美国将把大部分剩余天然气出口到其他国家。但由于需求下降,液化天然气供应过剩,大量货物充斥市场。加上天然气价格下跌,未来数月会有更多的美国液化天然气货物订单被取消。
分析师预计,美国天然气储量将在夏季(4月至10月)达到创纪录的4.078万亿立方英尺,在生产商减产前,需求就已大幅缩减。根据2018年最新的数据显示,这仍远低于美国48个州4.268万亿立方英尺的产能。
夏季天然气市场相对来说不太活跃,而需求下滑意味着价格将进一步下跌。欧洲和亚洲需求的下降,以及美国新投入使用的液化装置数量的减少,意味着过去几年美国液化天然气出口的快速增长速度将会放缓。
此前,全球天然气价格就已经跌至美国近年来的最低水平,而温和的天气降低了北美、欧洲和亚洲的取暖燃料需求,使欧洲的天然气库存达到历史最高水平。
洪伟立 摘译自 路透社
原文如下:
U.S. natgas storage to hit record as coronavirus cuts demand, LNG exports
U.S. natural gas stockpiles will hit an all-time high in 2020 as drillers keep producing record amounts of fuel even though demand is expected to slump as governments take steps to slow the spread of coronavirus.
Before the outbreak, analysts projected the United States would export much of its surplus gas to other countries. But suppliers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are flooding the market with excess cargoes due to declining demand, and analysts expect buyers to cancel more U.S. cargoes in coming months as gas prices plunge.
Analysts polled by Reuters project U.S. gas storage will reach a record 4.078 trillion cubic feet (tcf) at the end of the summer (April-October) injection season as the pandemic cuts demand before producers can reduce output. That is still well short of U.S. capacity of 4.268 tcf in the Lower 48 states, according to the most recent federal data in 2018.
However, the slump in demand headed into the seasonally less active summer means prices are set to drop further. The combination of reduced demand out of Europe and Asia, and fewer new U.S. liquefaction units entering service means the rapid pace of U.S. LNG export growth over the past few years will slow.
Even before the coronavirus spread, global gas prices were already trading at their lowest in years as the U.S.-China trade war pressured economic growth while mild weather reduced heating demand in North America, Europe and Asia and filled European gas stockpiles to historic highs.
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