近期石油市场价格底线难以预测

据3月29日福布斯（Forbes）报道，全球疫情对全球石油市场造成的空前破坏，使石油期货价格创下了合约的两位数折扣纪录，全球代理基准布伦特原油价格在近期原油需求暴跌中首当其冲。

上周五（3月27日），5月份布伦特原油期货合约收于每桶24.93美元，较11月的六个月远期合约收盘价37.20美元每桶下跌12.27美元，折扣率为49.29％。

3月份以来油价下跌幅度持续扩大，导致了巨大的期货溢价可能，即市场结构表明，石油价格应高于当前的实际价格的交易情绪处于2009年1月全球金融危机以来的最高水平。

在11年来的高点后，由于整个经济体处于封锁状态，市场预测原油需求短期下降。根据国际能源署（IEA）的数据，2020年每天的石油需求可能会比其先前的每天约1亿桶/日的预测减少五分之一。

所有这些都取决于在主要原油消费市场美国、印度、日本和韩国能否迅速控制疫情。

许多人特别担心美国可能成为大流行的新震中，大流行目前正在打击许多欧洲经济体，尤其是意大利，法国和西班牙。现在美国主要的经济中心，例如加利福尼亚州，纽约州和德克萨斯州都处于封锁状态。

但目前的市场情绪表明，消费量在今年第三季度末和第四季度的大部分时间里将出现反弹，随后在2021年将进一步上扬，这正是许多交易者所押注的，造成了许多人争先恐后地抢占陆上和浮动储油设施以囤积原油的期货结构。

在过去的两周中，北美陆上仓储的价格翻了一番，而在利润丰厚的中东至亚洲航线上，超大型原油运输船（VLCC）形式的浮式储存的租赁费率飙升了700%，达到平均每天30万美元。

随着石油输出国组织崩溃导致的危机加剧，近期石油价格底线难以预测，包括国际能源署（IEA）在内的许多组织认为，需求增长可能会强劲反弹，并在2021年上升210万桶/日。这正是许多人寄希望于创造创纪录的持续息差的原因，即使目前的市场形势合情合理。

舒晓玲 摘译自 福布斯（Forbes）

原文如下：

Oil Futures In Record Contango Of Over $10 For First Time Since 2009

An unprecedented havoc unleashed on the global oil market by the coronavirus or Covid-19 pandemic has sent oil futures into record double-digit discounts to later contracts, with the global proxy benchmark Brent bearing the brunt of the near-term slump in crude demand.

On Friday (March 27), the Brent front-month contract for May, closed at $24.93 per barrel, -$12.27 or a 49.29% discount on the six-month forward contract for November that traded at around $37.20 per barrel over the same session.

The current price slump, that progressively deepened over the course of March, has resulted in a massive contango - i.e. a market structure indicative of trading sentiment in favor of oil prices being higher in the future compared to current prices - at levels unseen since the height of the global financial crisis in January 2009.

The 11-year contango highs follow market predictions of near-term declines in crude oil demand with whole economies in lockdown mode. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) oil demand could be a fifth less per day from its previous projection rate of around ~100 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2020.

All of it depends on how quickly, or not, the coronavirus pandemic is brought under control in key crude consuming markets of U.S., India, Japan and South Korea – all which seem to be gripped by the pandemic.

Many fear the U.S. in particular could be the new epicenter of the pandemic that's currently crippling many European economies, especially those of Italy, France and Spain. Now major U.S. economic heartlands such as the states of California, New York and Texas are in lockdown.

But current market sentiment points to a bounce in consumption at the end of third quarter and for much of the fourth quarter of this year, with a further uptick in 2021 to follow. That's what many traders are betting on, creating the contango structure with many rushing to grab onshore and floating storage to hoard crude.

Prices for onshore storage in North America have doubled over the last fortnight, while lease rates for floating storage in the shape of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have jumped by a stupendous 700% to an average of $300,000 per day in some cases on the lucrative Middle East to Asia routes.

As oil prices struggle to find a near-term floor with the crisis exacerbated following the collapse of OPEC+, many including the IEA suggest demand growth could bounce back strongly and rise by 2.1 million bpd in 2021. It's what many are pinning their hopes on leading to record contango spreads, even if the current market situation has some way to run.