雷斯塔：东南亚钻机使用率将下降

据今日海上能源网站3月31日消息 东南亚钻机市场原本预计在2020年增长，但现在却将出现下滑。一份雷斯塔能源的分析显示，由于Covid-19大流行和持续的油价战的影响，一些石油公司已经大幅削减了2020年的资本支出预算。

据雷斯塔能源称，东南亚的勘探与生产公司一直非常谨慎，将钻井平台锁定在长期合同，因此不太可能行使期权。

雷斯塔预计，如果在2020年剩余时间内没有签订新合同，也没有行使任何期权，该地区的利用率将在3月至12月下降54%，这意味着较2019年水平同比下降18%。

在2020年地区市场的选择中，40%是与马国油合作。因此，今年的市场发展将相当依赖于马国油决定行使的期权数量。

马来西亚国家石油公司正积极努力，尽可能保持运营的平稳，与当地人员合作的钻井平台可能不会受到很大的限制。然而，在马来西亚最近宣布将封锁期延长两周后，由于船员受限，在该国运营的几座钻井平台预计将在未来几周内停止作业。

今年在东南亚计划的大部分钻井项目都由棕地工程组成，雷斯塔预计，运营商将在填充钻井部分减少大部分钻井预算。

雷斯塔能源资深油田服务分析师Jo Friedmann说：“稍微乐观一点的是，与其他地区市场相比，在东南亚（国家石油公司倾向于支持国家钻井承包商），现有钻井平台合同可能面临的终止风险较小。这并不是说不会有任何合同终止，但我们预计其强度将低于全球。”

吴恒磊 编译自 今日海上能源

原文如下：

Rig utilization in Southeast Asia set for decline, Rystad’s analysis shows

Southeast Asia’s rig market, which was poised for growth in 2020, is now set for a decline. Several oil companies have already made significant cuts to their 2020 capex budgets due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ongoing oil price war, a Rystad Energy’s analysis shows.

According to Rystad Energy, E&Ps in Southeast Asia have been very cautious by locking in rigs on long-term contacts, making it unlikely that options will be exercised.

Rystad sees that if no new contracts are signed and no options are exercised for the remainder of 2020, utilization will drop by 54% in the region from March to December. This translates to an 18% year-on-year drop from 2019 levels.

Of the options in the regional market for 2020, 40% are for work with Petronas. Therefore, market development this year will be quite dependent on the volume of options that Petronas decides to exercise.

Petronas is proactively striving to keep operations running as smoothly as possible, and rigs with local crews might not be greatly inhibited. However, after the recently announced two-week extension of the lockdown in Malaysia, several rigs operating in the country are expected to gear down activity in the next few weeks due to crew timeout.

Most of the planned drilling programs in Southeast Asia this year are comprised of brownfield work, and Rystad expects operators to reduce their drilling budgets most within the infill drilling segment.

“On a slightly more positive note, existing rig contracts probably face less danger of being terminated in Southeast Asia – where national oil companies tend to support the national drilling contractor – than in other regional markets. That is not to say there won’t be any contract terminations, but we expect the intensity to be lower than it is globally,“ said Rystad Energy’s senior oilfield service analyst, Jo Friedmann.