二季度油价可能跌破20美元/桶

据CNBC网站4月6日消息，根据CNBC对30名策略师、分析师和交易员的调查，疫情引发的历史性需求冲击将在本季度加剧，削弱沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和美国等重量级产油国为大幅削减供应而重新平衡市场所做出的任何协调努力。

不能排除上周出现的每桶20美元或以上的基准原油期货价格偶尔飙升的可能性，因为竞争对手沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯试图扭转一场破坏性的市场份额争夺战，并策划一项全球供应协议，该协议可能每天缩减1500万桶原油，相当于全球供应量的10%左右。

看跌的预测者表示，有两种力量将使第二季度的油价保持低迷–怀疑沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯将屈服于价格战，并承诺在生产者集团的历史上进行最大幅度的削减（有或没有美国页岩油生产商的参与）。以及随着疫情影响，整个经济严重程度不断加剧，全球需求出现巨大下降，导致本季度出现供过于求。

由于需求几乎陷于瘫痪，从新加坡到加勒比海的石油和燃料罐几乎满载-这是全球供过于求的鲜明证据。

冯娟 摘译自 CNBC

原文如下：

Oil prices could plunge below $20 a barrel this quarter

A historic demand shock sparked by the coronavirus pandemic is set to worsen in the current quarter, undermining any coordinated effort by heavyweight producers Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States to cut supply aggressively and rebalance the market, according to a CNBC survey of 30 strategists, analysts and traders.

Episodic spikes of $20 a barrel or more in benchmark crude oil futures of the type seen last week cannot be ruled out as rivals Saudi Arabia and Russia attempt to reverse a damaging battle for market share and engineer a global supply deal which could cut up to 15 million barrels a day, the equivalent of about 10% of global supply.

Bearish forecasters said two forces would keep oil prices depressed in the second quarter — skepticism that Saudi Arabia and Russia would relent in their price war and commit to the deepest cuts in the producer group’s history (with or without participation from U.S. shale producers) and a glut in the current quarter caused by a monumental collapse in global demand as the full economic severity of the global coronavirus pandemic unfolds.

With demand at near-paralysis, oil and fuel tanks from Singapore to the Caribbean are close to brimming - stark evidence of the global glut.