IEA:欧佩克或无法挽救石油市场

据今日油价4月5日报道，国际能源署(IEA)的执行主任表示，即使欧佩克+和世界上其他主要石油生产商同意实施每日1000万桶的大幅减产，但由于需求遭到前所未有的破坏，它们也无法解决本季度全球出现的巨大库存，而第二季全球石油库存仍将增加1500万桶/天。

由于全球经济放缓，4月石油需求较上年同期将减少2000万桶/天，甚至可能更多。

本周早些时候，IEA表示，全球以前曾出现过一些石油危机，但“没有一个像我们今天看到的那样，对石油行业造成如此严重的冲击”。这次冲击之所以独特，是因为通常的稳定因素之一—消费者—无法发挥作用。因此，只要当前形势持续，其它石油危机期间出现的需求增长“极不可能”出现。

与此同时，本周早些时候油价触及18年来最低水平，欧佩克+和另一个产油国组织预计将就如何应对需求损失展开讨论。

尽管美国号召将石油日产量削减1000万桶，甚至可能是1500万桶/天，但许多石油分析师仍然对能否达成减产协议并实施如此大规模的减产计划持高度怀疑态度。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

IEA: OPEC Can’t Save The Oil Market

Even if the OPEC+ group and other major oil producers in the world were to agree to deep production cuts, they would be unable to prevent what is sure to be an enormous global inventory build this quarter due to unprecedented demand destruction, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), told Reuters on Friday.

As a result of restricted commuter travel, grounded flights, and economic slowdown, demand for oil in April is expected to drop by 20 million bpd year on year, and probably more.

Even if OPEC+ plus other producers were to discuss, agree to, and implement a collective cut of 10 million bpd, global oil inventories would still rise by 15 million bpd in the second quarter, the IEA’s chief told Reuters.

Earlier this week, the IEA said that the world has seen some oil shocks before, but “none has hit the industry with quite the ferocity we are witnessing today.”

The reason the shock is unique this time around, the IAE says, is because one of the usual stabilization factors, consumers, is unable to do its part. As billions of people around the world are still in lockdown, consumers are unable to react to falling prices like they usually do—by consuming more. So for as long as the pandemic lasts, boosts in demand that were seen during other oil shocks are “highly unlikely.”

Meanwhile, producers from the OPEC+ group and from another group are expected to discuss potential ways to react to the massive demand loss and the low oil prices that hit their lowest level in 18 years earlier this week.