沙特、俄罗斯推迟减产会议后油价下跌

据4月6日OE网站报道，在沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯推迟了讨论减产的会议后，周一油价下滑。该减产会议可能在一定程度上缓解因疫情导致的全球市场供应过剩。

布伦特原油早盘下跌至接近每桶30美元，在格林尼治标准时间5点32分时，收于33.45美元，下跌66美分，跌幅1.9%。西德克萨斯中质原油下跌98美分，至每桶27.36美元，跌幅3.5%，此前曾触及25.28美元的低点。

上周晚些时候，油价飙升，美国和布伦特原油合约录得有史以来最大的周百分比涨幅，原因是人们预测欧佩克及其盟国将达成协议，在全球范围内每天至少削减1000万桶原油供应。

沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯最初定于周一举行会议，讨论减产问题，但现在已被推迟到4月9日。

CMC Global Markets首席策略师迈克尔麦卡锡表示，“沙特和俄罗斯的会晤只是拖延了一段时间，就摧毁了这轮反弹的势头。”

美国曾表示，如果需要“保护”美国能源工人免受因俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯争夺市场份额而加剧的油价暴跌的影响，将对原油进口征收关税。

大西洋两岸的价格在3月份创下了有史以来最低记录，因为新冠病毒大流行削弱了原本就供应泛滥的市场需求。

澳新银行和花旗银行分析师警告称，减产可能“太少，太晚”，无法支撑油价。

IEA负责人表示，即使减产1000万桶/日，第二季度石油库存仍将增加1500万桶/日。

他敦促世界上最富有的经济体讨论稳定石油市场的更广泛途径。

不过，马里兰州贝塞斯达Rapidan能源集团总裁罗伯特·麦克纳利表示，沙特阿拉伯推迟公布原油官方售价的举动表明，它并不急于在达成潜在协议前向市场大量供应廉价原油。

“这是一个非常明显的迹象，表明他们愿意在5月份减产，”他说。

沙特一位消息人士告诉路透社，沙特将推迟到周五公布原油售价，以等待欧佩克及其盟国关于合理削减产量会议的结果。

这也表明市场预计供应过剩将有所改善，促使油价上周大幅上涨，并大幅缩小了与未来几个月的差距。

CMC的麦卡锡说，油价也可能不再暴跌，因为数十年来的低油价已经迫使生产商削减产量。

麦卡锡在谈到美国页岩气生产商时说：“短期内，低价市场是非常痛苦的，但如果这真的导致许多参与者离开该行业，那么这供应面将趋于平衡。”

美国能源服务公司贝克休斯公司上周五表示，上周美国钻井平台数量减少了62个，创下5年来最大单周降幅，原因是美国能源公司因与疫情相关的经济活动和燃料需求下滑而削减了新钻井的开支。

巴西国家石油公司的石油减产量也翻了一番，达到20万桶/日，占总产量的6%。

舒晓玲 摘译自 OE网站

原文如下：

Oil Drops after Saudi Arabia, Russia Delay Meeting on Output Cuts

Oil prices slipped on Monday, after Saudi Arabia and Russia delayed a meeting to discuss output cuts that could partly alleviate oversupply in global markets as the coronavirus pandemic pummels demand.

Brent crude slipped close to $30 a barrel in early trade and was at $33.45 by 0532 GMT, down 66 cents, or 1.9%. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 98 cents, or 3.5%, to $27.36 a barrel, after earlier touching a low of $25.28.

Late last week, prices surged, with U.S. and Brent contracts posting their largest ever weekly percentage gains due to hopes that OPEC and its allies would strike a deal to cut crude supply worldwide by at least 10 million barrels per day (bpd).

Saudi Arabia and Russia were initially set to meet on Monday to discuss output cuts, but that has now been pushed to April 9, after they blamed each other for the collapse of talks in March.

It "just took a delay in the meeting between Saudi and Russia to knock the wind out of that rally", said Michael McCarthy, chief strategist at CMC Global Markets in Sydney.

U.S. President Donald Trump has said he will impose tariffs on crude imports if he needed to "protect" U.S. energy workers from the oil price crash that has been exacerbated by the war between Russia and Saudi Arabia over market share.

Prices on both sides of the Atlantic marked their worst month on record in March as the coronavirus pandemic crippled demand in a market flooded with supplies.

Production cuts could come "too little, too late" to support oil prices, ANZ and Citi analysts cautioned.

The head of the International Energy Agency has said oil inventories would still rise by 15 million bpd in the second quarter even with output cuts of 10 million bpd.

He urged the world's richest economies to discuss broader ways to stabilize oil markets.

Still, a move by Saudi Arabia to delay the release of its crude official selling prices indicates it is not eager to flood the market with cheap supplies before a potential agreement, said Robert McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group in Bethesda, Maryland.

"That's a pretty clear sign that they are open to cutting production in May," he said.

The kingdom delayed the release until Friday to wait for the outcome of the meeting between OPEC and its allies regarding possible output cuts, a Saudi source told Reuters.

Indicating the market too is expecting the supply glut to improve, prompt oil prices jumped last week and sharply narrowed their gap with future months .

Oil prices could also firm as decades-low prices have already forced producers to cut output, CMC's McCarthy said.

"In the short term the low prices are very painful, but if it does lead to a lot of those players leaving the industry, the supply side of the equation will balance out," McCarthy said, referring to U.S. shale producers.

Rig counts in the United States fell by 62 last week, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said on Friday, marking the biggest weekly drop in five years, as U.S. energy companies slashed spending on new drilling due to a coronavirus-related slump in economic activity and fuel demand.

Brazil's Petrobras has also doubled its oil output cuts to 200,000 bpd, or 6% of its total production.