雷斯塔能源：美国钻机数量骤降65％

据今日油价4月7日报道，由于疫情和持续油价战的综合影响，美国油气产业正在大力踩刹车，并以创纪录的速度减少钻探活动，根据Rystad能源研究显示，水平石油钻机的数量较3月中旬的水平下降约65%。

钻机数量被普遍认为是勘探与生产企业投资意愿的最重要指标之一。 它不仅代表了市场上的实际钻探活动，而且也是衡量消费者信心的关键指标，与价格发展密切相关。

据Rystad能源估计，从今年3月中旬的约620台钻机的峰值开始，该石油钻机的数量预计将骤降至200台左右，诠释了勘探与生产（E＆P）公司的最新指导。预期下降的大部分数量将在四月底达到。 到目前为止，水平钻机数量已降至约500台，较三周前的最高点下降了19％。

Rystad能源页岩研究负责人Artem Abramov表示，该下降速度超过了最初的油价暴跌后预期的。 可以肯定的是，与以前的美国陆上钻机下降周期相比，该行业反应更快，而且在接下来的几个月中，我们很可能会看到类似幅度的持续向下调整。

水平石油钻机的数量在过去两周内下降了近15%。 在2015年初和2016年初的前几个下跌周期中，两周的跌幅分别达到了11%和9%的峰值。自活动高峰以来的三周内，水平石油钻井下降了19%。 在2015年和2016年的下降周期中，峰值后10至16周才看到相同幅度的下降。

整个2019年钻机数量也有所下降，尽管这应归因于行业商业模式的变化而不是真正的下降周期。 当时，大约用了9个月的时间才下降到20％。

郝芬 译自 今日油价

原文如下：

U.S. Rig Count Could Collapse By 65%

Due to the combined global effect of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ongoing oil price war, the American oil and gas industry is stepping heavily on the brake pedal and is reducing drilling at record speed, Rystad Energy research shows, putting the horizontal oil rig count on track to fall by about 65% from mid-March levels.

The rig count is widely considered to be one of the most important indicators of investment appetite by E&Ps. It not only represents the actual drilling activity in the market but is also a key metric of consumer confidence, closely related to price developments.

From a peak of about 620 rigs in mid-March 2020, the oil rig count is forecast to free-fall to a potential bottom of around 200, Rystad Energy estimates, interpreting updated guidance from exploration and production (E&P) companies. Most of the anticipated decline will come already by the end of April. The horizontal rig count has so far dropped to roughly 500, falling by 19% from the recent apogee just three weeks ago.

“The speed of this decline exceeds the initial post-oil-price-crash expectations. This is for sure a much faster industry reaction than during the previous US land rig down cycles, and we will likely see continuous downward adjustments of similar magnitude throughout the next couple of months,” says Rystad Energy’s Head of Shale Research Artem Abramov.

The horizontal oil rig count declined by almost 15% over the past two weeks. In the previous down cycles of early 2015 and early 2016, two-week declines peaked at 11% and 9%, respectively. Over a three-week period since peak activity level, horizontal oil drilling is down by 19%. In the down cycles of 2015 and 2016, it took 10 to 16 weeks after the peak to see the same magnitude of decline.

Rig counts also fell throughout all of 2019, though this should be attributed to a change in the industry business model rather than a real down cycle. That time, it took around nine months for the decline to reach 20% magnitude.