美国将在三季度恢复石油净进口国地位

据4月7日OGJ报道，美国能源信息署(EIA)在其最新一期《短期能源展望》中表示，美国将在2020年第三季度恢复其原油和石油产品净进口国的地位，并在预测期结束前的大多数时间里继续保持净进口国的地位。

这一预测依据的是原油净进口的增加和石油产品净出口的减少。随着美国原油产量下滑，可供出口的桶数将减少，预计原油净进口将增加。在石油产品方面，净出口将在2020年第三季度降至最低水平，届时美国炼油厂的开工量预计将大幅下降。

值得注意的是，EIA在展望中所预测的结果是在预测期间欧佩克+不重新执行减产协议的情况下做出的。由于全球需求在不断变化中，因此4月的《展望》将面临更大的不确定性。

3月份，布伦特原油均价为32美元/桶，较2月份的均价下跌24美元/桶，为2016年1月以来的最低月度均价。EIA预测，2020年布伦特原油均价将为33美元/桶，比上月的水平低10美元/桶，低于2019年的64美元/桶。由于全球石油库存再度下降，给油价带来上行压力，布伦特原油均价将在2021年升至46美元/桶，比上月的预测低10美元/桶。

王佳晶 摘译自 OGJ

原文如下：

EIA: US to regain status as net oil importer in third quarter

The US will regain its status as a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020 and remain a net importer in most months through the end of the forecast period, the US Energy Information Administration said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The forecast is a result of higher net imports of crude oil and lower net exports of petroleum products. Net crude oil imports are expected to increase because as US crude oil production declines, there will be fewer bbl available for export. On the petroleum product side, net exports will be lowest in the third quarter of 2020, when US refinery runs are expected to decline significantly.

It is noteworthy that EIA’s forecasts in the outlook were made assuming no re-implementation of an OPEC+ agreement during the forecast period.

EIA said the April edition of the outlook is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because the impacts of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on energy markets are still evolving.

Brent crude oil prices averaged $32/bbl in March, a decrease of $24/bbl from the average in February and the lowest monthly average since January 2016. EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $33/bbl in 2020, $10/bbl lower than in last month’s STEO and down from an average of $64/bbl in 2019. Average Brent prices will rise to an average of $46/bbl in 2021, $10/bbl lower than forecast last month, as a return to declining global oil inventories puts upward pressure on prices.