天然气市场危机四伏

据今日油价4月9日报道，天然气已经从石油生产的副产品变成了交通、工业和供暖的重要能源。技术进步助推其作为全球主要能源的发展进程。在此之前，输气管道基础设施和地理位置靠近天然气产区是进口天然气的必要条件。然而，随着液化天然气的发明和发展，即使是偏远和难以到达的地区现在也可以使用这种燃料。全球各地液化和再气化工厂的建设，为这个传统上缺乏灵活性的行业注入了前所未有的流动性。

然而，由于天然气价格在很长一段时间内处于极低水平，目前天然气市场正面临重大危机。由于需求减少加上供应过剩，让天然气市场危机四伏。在经历了连续两个暖冬之后，天然气行业已经处于危险的境地，目前正在走向崩溃的边缘。

通常情况下，该燃料是气态的，这使得它比石油更难运输。这也是为何管道总是运输天然气的首选方式的原因。尽管液化天然气在一定程度上改变了这一局面，但世界上大多数天然气仍是通过管道运输的。

供应和需求之间的平衡是脆弱的，因为相对于单一设施的平均产能，液化天然气市场的规模相对较小。2018年液化天然气市场规模约为320万吨/年。相比之下，2019年等待最终投资决定的液化天然气液化项目的产能在31万吨至800万吨之间。这意味着最大的项目将使全球生产能力增加10%。这个市场规模意味着供求保持平衡并不容易。

过去两个供暖季节，北半球异常温暖的天气导致亚洲和欧洲的储存相对充足。这大大抑制了需求，从而导致价格下降。

桑福德·伯恩斯坦公司(Sanford v. Bernstein)驻伦敦的分析师迪帕·文卡特斯瓦兰(Deepa Venkateswaran)表示：“天气对行业的影响已经很大了。而需求危机又带来了更严重的冲击。”

此外，与石油市场不同，天然气行业没有一个“欧佩克”来影响价格。生产者无法协调生产水平来设定市场可接受的价格。

邹勤 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Natural Gas Is Suffering On All Sides

Natural gas has gone from being a by-product of oil production to a vital source of energy for transportation, industry, and heating. Technological advancements have strengthened the fuel’s proliferation as a central energy source across the globe. Previously, pipeline infrastructure and geographic proximity to production areas were a necessity to import gas. However, with the invention and growth of LNG, even isolated and hard to reach regions can now use the fuel. The construction of liquefaction and regasification plants all over the world have injected previously unseen levels of liquidity into a traditionally inflexible sector.

The natural gas market today, however, is facing a major crisis due to very low prices for an extended period of time. A perfect storm is forming around the sector due to a combination of bad luck and oversupply. The gas industry was already in a precarious position after two consecutive mild winters, and now COVID-19 is pushing it to the brink of collapse.

The gaseous state of the fuel under normal circumstances makes it relatively difficult to transport compared to oil. Which is why pipelines were always the favored choice for transit purposes. Although LNG has somewhat transformed the situation, the majority of the world’s natural gas is still transported by pipelines.

The equilibrium between supply and demand is brittle due to the relatively small size of the LNG market compared to average production capacity at a single facility. The size of the LNG market in 2018 was approximately 320 mtpa. In comparison, LNG liquefaction projects in 2019 that were in line for a final investment decision had a capacity between 31 and 8 mtpa. This means that the biggest undertaking would add up to 10 percent to global production capacity. The size of this market means the pendulum swings fairly easy between undersupply, balance, and oversupply.

Unusually warm weather in the northern hemisphere during the past two heating seasons has led to relatively full storage in both Asia and Europe. This has significantly depressed demand and consequentially led to lower prices.

According to Deepa Venkateswaran, an analyst at Sanford v. Bernstein in London, "the impact of the weather was already significant. The coronavirus will take that to a much higher level."

Furthermore, unlike the oil market, the natural gas industry does not have an 'OPEC' to influence prices. Producers are not able to coordinate production levels to set prices that are acceptable for the market.