投资者对欧佩克减产充满期待

据4月9日FXstreet报道，因市场预期全球最大的产油国最终将同意减产，大西洋两岸的石油期货价格大幅上涨。一个多月前，欧佩克+减产协议到期，导致全球石油供应激增，尽管该行业正面临需求的崩溃。

布伦特原油已从3月份的低点反弹了一半，西德克萨斯中质原油价格则上涨了34%。然而，自今年年初以来，这两种基准指数仍下跌了一半以上。

根据美国能源信息署数据，在石油需求方面，美国每天减少1440万桶。根据FGE的数据，全球第三大消费国印度的需求已经暴跌了18%，而该国炼油厂的前景更为黯淡，其需求在4月初下降了三分之二以上。

有趣的是，石油期货的交易量在上升，但实际购买者可以以更低的价格购买——北美一些品级的原油以低于每桶10美元的价格出售。这反映了现阶段能源市场的困境和供过于求的现状，许多人对沙特和俄罗斯达成协议给市场带来稳定表示怀疑。

鉴于当前市场危机的严重程度，沙特和俄罗斯达成协议的可能性很大。市场价格显示，原油日产量将减少1000万至1500万桶。这可能会在短期内推高价格，但如果需求在4月底前没有复苏，那么供需平衡将再次受到影响。根据最新的估计，全球石油日需求下降了近2500万桶，而人们期待的减产幅度仍远未达到平衡水平。

为了达成一项更有意义的协议，需要美国的加入，但鉴于美国所有的生产商都是私营企业，这使得这项任务非常困难。另一个稳定的来源可能来自周五的20国集团紧急能源部长会议，如果更多的产油国加入这项协议，大型石油消费国通过增加其战略石油储备为需求方做出贡献，那么这将为油价提供一个长期稳定因素。

洪伟立 摘译自 FXstreet

原文如下：

Oil bulls are betting on OPEC+ production curb; will it be enough?

Oil futures jumped on both sides of the Atlantic on expectations the world’s biggest producers would finally agree on production cuts. That comes a little over a month after the expired OPEC+ deal led to a surge of crude production by Saudi Arabia in a fight for market share, despite the industry being confronted with the coronavirus-driven collapse in demand.

Brent crude has managed to recover half of its losses from the March lows, while WTI has gained 34%. However, both Benchmarks have still lost more than half their value since the beginning of the year.

In terms of demand, the US has seen a fall of 14.4 million barrels a day, according to the US Energy Information Administration. India, the world’s third-largest consumer, has seen a plunge in demand of 18% according to FGE, but refineries are painting a more gloomy picture saying their demand tumbled by more than two-thirds in early April.

Interestingly, Oilfutures are trading higher but physical purchasers can buy at a much lower price, with some grades in North America being sold at a price tag of less than $10 a barrel. That reflects the current distress and glut in energy markets at this stage with many wondering whether a Saudi – Russian deal will bring stability back to the market.

Given the magnitude of the current economic crisis, there’s a high chance of a deal being struck. Markets are pricing a 10 – 15 million barrels a day cut in oil production. That could send prices a little higher in the short term, but fundamentals will still rule further out and if demand doesn’t recover by the end of April, then that supply-demand equation will again look terrible. According to the latest estimates, global demand has fallen by nearly 25 million barrels a day and the awaited cut is still far from balancing the equation.

To have a more meaningful deal, the US needs to jump in, but given that all US producers are private companies, it makes this mission very difficult. Another source of stability could come from Friday’s G20 emergency energy minister’s meeting. If more producers join the deal and large oil consumers contribute to the demand side by adding to their strategic oil reserves, this shouldprovide a longer-term stability factor to prices.