减产协议光明隐现 油价继续上涨

据4月9日Rigzone报道，由于全球需求不断减少，全球主要产油国似乎将达成减产协议，油价延续了此前的涨势。

纽约原油期货价格周三上涨约4%，超过26美元/桶，此前俄罗斯表示准备减产160万桶/天，约占其总产量的15%。欧佩克轮值主席国阿尔及利亚的能源部长对该国国家通讯社表示，将于周四晚些时候举行的欧佩克+会议将讨论大规模的减产，或将达到1000万桶/天。

20国集团的能源部长们将在周五讨论如何为达成协议而做出更广泛的贡献，美国的合作可能是启动欧佩克+供应限制的关键。美国要求俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯减少石油产量，并表示，由于油价暴跌导致美国石油产量下降，该国已“自动”减产。

不过，莫斯科对美国的承诺仍持怀疑态度，这表明谈判仍有破裂的可能。克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫(Dmitry Peskov)表示，俄罗斯不认为需求下降或价格下降导致的供应减少是真正意义上的减产。

随着全球能源消耗的下降速度超出许多人的预期，低油价和高供给的情况或将结束。全球第三大石油消费国印度的石油需求暴跌了70%之多，随着美国石油消费量降至至少30年来的最低水平，美国一些大型炼油厂也面临关闭危机。

截至伦敦时间上午7点30分，纽约商品交易所 5月份交割的西德克萨斯中质原油价格上涨4.2%，至每桶26.14美元，此前一个交易日的涨幅为6.2%。欧洲洲际交易所7月份交割的布伦特原油价格上涨1.9%，至每桶33.45美元，而周三收盘时上涨了3%。

尽管期货市场有所上涨，但由于炼油厂削减加工率和购买量，现货价格仍在下跌。北美内陆地区的原油价格正不断走低，巴肯(Bakken)地区的原油价格已跌至10美元以下，加拿大的石油价格也创下历史新低。艾伯塔省省长肯尼(Jason Kenney)周二警告称，油价出现负增长的可能性非常大。

接受彭博社访问的26名分析师、交易员和炼油商中，25名都预测欧佩克和其他产油国将同意减产，平均来看，将减产850万桶/天。虽然这是一个巨大的降幅，但与一些交易员估计的每天高达3500万桶的需求损失相比，这个降幅仍然相形见绌。

高盛集团的分析师达米恩?库瓦林（Damien Courvalin）在4月8日的一份报告中表示，现在协调减产的可能性很大。不过，每天减少1000万桶或许还不够，因低油价还将增加400万桶/天的减产量。

王佳晶 摘译自 Rigzone

原文如下：

Oil Up With Producers Edging Toward Deal

Oil extended gains as the world’s top oil producers appeared to be moving closer to a deal to curb output in the face of deepening demand destruction being wrought by the coronavirus.

Futures in New York rose around 4% to above $26 a barrel after rallying Wednesday as Russia said it’s ready to cut by 1.6 million barrels a day, or about 15% of its total output. The OPEC+ meeting to be held later on Thursday will discuss a “massive output reduction, which may reach 10 million barrels a day,” the energy minister of Algeria, which holds OPEC’s rotating presidency, told his country’s state news agency.

G-20 energy ministers will then discuss broader contributions to any agreement on Friday, with U.S. cooperation likely key to unlocking the OPEC+ supply curbs. President Donald Trump has put huge diplomatic pressure on Russia and Saudi Arabia to reduce production, while saying America’s cut will happen “automatically” as plunging prices cause a pullback in output.

Moscow remains skeptical about the U.S. commitment, however, signaling that there’s still a chance negotiations will break down. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia doesn’t consider a supply reduction driven by falling demand or lower prices to be a real output cut.

The possible end of the Saudi-Russian price war just over a month after it started is happening as global energy consumption plummeted faster than many anticipated. Oil demand in India, the world’s third-biggest consumer, has collapsed by as much as 70% amid the world’s largest national lockdown, while some of America’s biggest refineries are facing closure after U.S. oil consumption fell to the lowest in at least three decades.

West Texas Intermediate for May delivery rose 4.2% to $26.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7:30 a.m. in London after climbing 6.2% in the previous session. Brent for July delivery added 1.9% to $33.45 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after closing up 3% on Wednesday.

Despite gains in the futures market, physical prices are still dropping as refineries cut processing rates and purchases. North American landlocked crudes are fetching ever lower prices, with grades in the Bakken region back beneath $10 and oil in Canada at a record low. Alberta Premier Jason Kenney warned on Tuesday that there’s a “very real possibility” of negative prices.

All but one of 26 analysts, traders and refiners surveyed by Bloomberg forecast that OPEC and other producers will agree to reduce output, with the average of their estimates at 8.5 million barrels a day. While that’s a vast decrease, it would still pale in comparison to the demand loss that some traders gauge is as much as 35 million barrels a day.

A coordinated output cut is now more likely than not, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts led by Damien Courvalin said in a note dated April 8. However, a 10 million barrel a day reduction wouldn’t be sufficient and would still require an additional 4 million barrels a day of price-induced shut-ins, they said.