天然气价格上涨或有助美国能源行业复苏

据4月8日福布斯（Forbes）报道，当今石油市场前途暗淡，难在其中找到“光明”。即使是本周欧佩克和20国集团就供应问题召开会议，石油市场都将面临着漫长的道路要走，才能突破在疫情爆发前WTI原油交易每桶50美元左右的可能。

但是，越来越多的分析师和能源行业高管将天然气市场视为美国生产者的解困的第一来源。美国生产商对低油价的反应，包括关闭不盈利的油井和削减30％甚至50％的钻井资本预算，都将对国内天然气产量和石油产量产生巨大影响。

美国大约有40％的天然气产量是所谓的“伴生气”，是石油开采的副产品。这意味着国内原油产量的大幅下降也将导致天然气产量的大幅下降。许多专家认为，与石油相比，这可能会导致美国天然气价格更快、更迅速地恢复。由于当今空前的供应过剩，美国可能需要几年时间来消化目前积累的大量库存。

多年来，美国天然气价格一直供过于求。在疫情来临之前，冬季是取暖燃料天然气需求的高峰期，天然气的交易价格低至2美元/MMBtu以下。由于疫情对工业需求的影响，导致价格跌至1.50美元，这是自1995年以来的最低水平。如今，纽约商品交易所（Nymex Henry Hub）的基准价格仍然非常低，约为1.80美元/MMBtu。

但是投资者和交易者都将目光投向了未来，许多人认为天然气的前景更加光明。尽管美国独立生产商在2020年的股价普遍下跌了50％以上，但天然气生产商的表现要好得多。

实际上，美国最大的天然气生产商EQT的股价今年以来略有上涨。考虑到疫情影响已在企业界广泛传播，这真是令人印象深刻。

舒晓玲 摘译自 福布斯（Forbes）

原文如下：

Higher Natural Gas Prices Could Lead Recovery Of U.S. Energy Industry

It’s hard to find bright spots amid the doom and gloom in today’s oil markets. No matter what happens at the OPEC and G20 meetings later this week in terms of supply management, the oil market faces a long road back to breaking the mid $50-a-barrel range that WTI crude was trading at before the coronavirus outbreak.

But analysts and energy executives are increasingly looking to natural gas markets as a first source of relief for U.S. producers. American producers’ response to low crude prices, including shutting in uneconomic wells and slashing drilling capital budgets by 30 percent and even 50 percent, will have a dramatic effect on domestic natural gas output as well as oil.

Roughly 40 percent of U.S. gas production is so-called “associated gas,” a byproduct of drilling for oil. That means the sharp drop in domestic crude output will result in a significant reduction in gas production, too. And many experts think this could result in a faster, sharper recovery in prices for U.S. gas compared to oil, where it could take a couple years to work off the vast inventories that are now building due to today’s unprecedented supply surplus.

U.S. gas prices have been beset by oversupply for years. Before the coronavirus outbreak, natural gas traded at depressed levels below $2 per million British Thermal Units (MMBtu) during the heart of winter — peak demand season for the heating fuel. Concerns about the impact of coronavirus on industrial demand later took prices to the $1.50 level — a low not seen since 1995. Today, benchmark Nymex Henry Hub prices are still extremely low at around $1.80 per MMBtu.

But investors and traders are focused on the future and many see a much brighter outlook for the commodity. While U.S. independent producers have generally seen their share prices slashed by at least 50 percent in 2020, gas producers have fared much better.

Shares of EQT, the largest gas producer in America, actually show a slight year-to-date gain. That’s impressive considering the widespread carnage the coronavirus has unleashed on the corporate world.