美国1/3的剩余原油储能将在4月饱和

据油田技术4月11日报道，当下全球需求暴跌，随着石油生产国继续就减产争吵不休，石油库存也在逐日增加。Rystad Energy的一份分析报告显示，按照目前的存储速度，美国现有可用原油储存容量的三分之一将在4月份被装满。随着更多的石油被开采出来，该国出现历史上最大规模停产的日子也就不远了。

Rystad Energy分析显示，美国的商用石油储量约为6.534亿桶，包括管道填埋和运输途中的原油在内约为7.8亿桶。截至3月底，石油库存已达4.692亿桶。

非商业石油储备，即战略石油储备(SPRs)，可储存7.135亿桶原油，而且已经接近饱和，因为已经储存了6.349亿桶原油。这意味着剩余的备用能力为3.898亿桶或29%，其中3.118亿桶供商业库存使用，7850万桶供SPRs使用。

Rystad Energy资深石油市场分析师Paola Rodriguez-Masiu表示："我们目前估计，随着炼厂大幅减少减产，生产商带来约1270万桶/天的供应，商业原油库存可能在2020年4月增加近9000万桶。"

4月份的原油供应将使现有的原油储能减少三分之一，理论上只剩下约2亿桶的储油能力(或按相同的装油速度再增加两个月)。实际上，可用原油储能可能接近1.5亿桶。

此外，并不是所有市场参与者都能平等获得储存空间。生产商可能很难获得这种储能，因为大多数工厂远离生产区域，只能通过管道才能到达，而由于终端缺少买家，管道运营商已经在限制石油进入管道系统。此外，有一定比例的可用产能已经锁定在长期租赁协议中。

Rodriguez-Masiu补充道：“许多市场参与者认为，海上原油存储将有助于填补这一空白。科珀斯克里斯蒂港最近表示，该港口可以支持浮式存储。然而，我们发现浮式存储容量有限，无法帮助解决最终在陆上发生的问题，”

储存问题的核心是道路燃料需求的突然下降。估计,美国汽油需求将达到前所未有的330万桶/天的降幅。

令人震惊的汽油需求暴跌，将迫使炼油商减产，在某些情况下，还将引发全面停产。Rystad估计，4月份美国炼厂日产量将减少380万桶/天，至1260万桶/天。墨西哥湾和西海岸的石油日产量分别减少了150万桶和90万桶。

王佳晶 摘译自 油田技术

原文如下：

Rystad Energy: third of available crude storage capacity in the US will already be filled in April

The Covid-19 pandemic has demolished global oil demand and as producing countries continue to quarrel over output cuts, stocks are building by the day. At current filling rates, a third of available crude storage capacity in the US will already be filled in April, a Rystad Energy analysis shows. With additional oil coming, the largest production shut-ins in the country’s history are not far off.

Rystad Energy’s analysis shows that total commercial storage in the US stands at about 653.4 million bbl, or some 780 million bbl including pipeline fills and crude-in-transit. At the end of March, 469.2 million bbl of oil were already in stock.

Non-commercial storage, known as strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs), has the capacity to store 713.5 million bbl of crude and is already almost full, as it already contains 634.9 million bbl of crude. This implies remaining spare capacity of 389.8 million bbl or 29%, 311.8 million bbl of which is available for commercial stocks and 78.5 million bbl of which is available for SPRs.

“We currently estimate that commercial crude stocks might build by nearly 90 million bbl in April 2020 as refiners dramatically reduce runs and producers bring about 12.7 million bpd of supply,” said Rystad Energy’s senior oil market analyst Paola Rodriguez-Masiu.

Crude builds in April will reduce available crude capacity by a third, leaving, in theory, about 200 million bbl of storage capacity (or two more months at the same filling rate). In practice, available crude capacity might be closer to 150 million bbl.

In addition, storage is not equally available to all market participants; producers might struggle to access this capacity as most is located far from production sides, only reachable via pipelines. Pipeline operators are already restraining access to their systems because there is no buyer at the end-side. Also, a percentage of the available capacity is already locked in long-term lease agreements.

“Many market participants suggest that offshore crude storage will help fill the gap – the Port of Corpus Christi recently stated that the port can support floating storage. However, we find that floating storage capacity is limited and cannot help resolve what ultimately happens onshore,“ added Rodriguez-Masiu.

At the heart of the storage problem is the sudden drop in road fuels demand. With several states across the US mandating non-essential workers stay at home in order to halt the spread of the coronavirus outbreak, including states with the highest road fuel demand such as California and New York, we estimate that US gasoline demand is set to decline by an unprecedented 3.3 million bpd y/y in April 2020.

The astonishing gasoline demand collapse will push refiners to cut runs and, in some cases, will trigger shut-downs altogether. Rystad currently estimate that US refinery runs in April will fall by 3.8 million bpd y/y to 12.6 million bpd. The Gulf Coast accounts for 1.5 million bpd of the reduction and the West Coast for nearly 900 000 bpd.?