G20成员国就稳定石油市场达成一致意见

据4月10日OGJ报道，G20成员国决定在稳定石油市场方面发挥更积极的作用，但没有做出具体承诺，也没有给出一些可能的削减措施。

会议公报草案称，G20成员国将致力于尽一切努力，无论是单独还是集体，以确保能源行业复苏。“我们欢迎产油国稳定能源市场的承诺……我们呼吁其他产油国和消费国也能为这些努力助力。”

4月9日，欧佩克和俄罗斯达成协议，将全球石油日产量削减1000万桶，这是历史上最大的减产规模。

Rystad Energy的石油市场分析师路易丝·迪克森(Louise Dickson)表示:“拟议中的欧佩克+的合作和规模是前所未有的，所以欧佩克和G20在宣布任何重大措施之前都需要时间，这是有道理的。但是石油市场已经没有多余的时间了。一些国家已经表示，它们已承诺关闭数百万桶的石油生产。如果5月份达成协议，完全遵守协议将变得不可行。”

他补充道：“即使在一个条件成熟的市场里，我们看到欧佩克+完全遵守协议，每天减产1000万桶，但在2020年第二季度，仍有令人难以置信的至少1000万桶/天的供应过剩。拟议中的减产措施本身无法有效或持久地扭转布伦特原油价格的深度顺价曲线，因为要想应对目前和未来的供应过剩，就必须保持库存的经济性。因此，我们并不认为当前石油市场的乐观情绪——布伦特原油价格处于每桶30美元的低位是合理的，我们仍然认为，我们需要看到一个更大的期货溢价，以支付即将需要的所有库存。”

他强调：“另外，也不要对实际生产削减规模那么肯定。我们认为不太可能在5月1日实施每日1000万桶的全面减产，因为距离5月1日只有三周时间，而实现如此规模的减产需要更长的时间。关闭石油生产设施不像简单地关掉水龙头或按下按钮那么灵活简单。”

Rystad Energy分析主管佩尔·马格纳斯·尼斯维恩(Per Magnus Nysveen)表示:“我们与欧佩克达成了一项协议，然而，由于包括美国和加拿大在内的其它产油国的承诺太少，该协议看上去很脆弱。需求下降的幅度现在高达2700万桶/天，所以我们可能在5月初耗尽原油储备空间，因为炼油厂现在的放缓速度比生产商快得多。”

邹勤 摘译自 OGJ

原文如下：

G20 agrees to stabilize oil market

G20 members decided to take a more active role to stabilize the oil market on Apr. 10, but did not make specific commitments or give a number of potential cuts.

A draft communique from the meeting said the G20 members would “commit to doing whatever it takes, both individually and collectively” to ensure the energy sector makes a recovery. “We welcome the commitment of producers to stabilize energy markets…We call on other producing and consuming countries to complement these efforts.”

On Apr. 9, OPEC and Russia agreed a deal to cut 10 million b/d from global supply, the biggest supply reduction in history.

“The collaboration and size of the proposed OPEC++ unprecedented, so it makes sense both OPEC and G20 are taking their time before any dam-busting announcement. But the oil market does not have time to spare. Some countries have communicated they have pledged shut-ins of millions of bbl of oil, which, if the deal is implemented in May, makes full compliance not feasible,” said Louise Dickson, an oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy.

“Even if in some perfect world we see full OPEC++ compliance and 10 million b/d in cuts, this still leaves an incredible minimum 10 million b/d supply overhang for 2020 second quarter.”

“The proposed OPEC+ cuts alone cannot reverse the deep contango curve of Brent prices in a meaningful or lasting way as storage is needed to remain economical to handle the current and still coming oversupply. So, we aren’t sold that the current oil market optimism - with Brent in the low $30s - is warranted, and still believe that we need to see a bigger contango to pay for all the storage that will soon be needed.”

“Also, and do not be so sure about the actual production cut size. We find it very unlikely that the full 10 million b/d cut will be implemented as May 1 is just three weeks away and cuts of that size take time to realize. The oil machine is not as flexible as just simply turning off the tap or pressing a button.”

Per Magnus Nysveen, head of analysis at Rystad Energy, said: “We have a deal by OPEC+ that was secured today by US saving Mexico's face. However, the deal looks fragile as there is yet too small commitment from other oil producers including US and Canada. The demand destruction is now as deep as 27 million b/d, so we risk running out of crude storage early May as refineries are now slowing down much faster than producers.”