美国低成本天然气再创纪录

据4月12日福布斯报道，2019年，国际能源署执行总监法提赫·比罗尔博士说：“天然气是全球能源的重要支柱之一，它改善了空气质量，限制了二氧化碳的排放。”

美国能源部的数据已经公布，2019年是美国天然气需求和市场化生产再创纪录的一年，分别约86 Bcf/d和100 Bcf/d。以天然气为基础的电力行业，该行业天然气使用量占总量的35-37％，处于领先地位。

2019年，天然气以31 Bcf / d的速度提供“电力发电”再创纪录，比2014年上升40％。天然气现在提供约40%的美国电力，以1,600 TWh的速度发电，使天然气在电力行业的增长更加惊人的是，电力需求在10年内一直保持稳定，约为4050TWh。即使在绿色的加利福尼亚州——可再生能源地区的“领头羊”，2019年天然气供应该州发电量也有42％（205 TWh中的85 TWh）——此数据已经考虑到利用资金和政策来推动风能和太阳能的发展。

自1月中旬以来，受疫情与冬季的影响，美国天然气价格一直保持在2.00美元/ MMBtu以下。天然气是一种低排放和清洁的燃料，如此低的价格显然会刺激了更多的消费者使用。美国能源部表示：“天然气低价格和产能的增加推动了2020年第一季度的电力消耗增长。”

2019年美国有14,000兆瓦左右的燃煤发电已经“退役”。由于夏季高温常常致使风力发电的可用性降低，而天然气可以实现夏季不间断发电。

展望未来，较低的温室气体排放量和能源更高灵活性将仍是美国电力系统不可或缺的一部分。

然而，正是这样一个低成本的投资组合可能是天然气最大的优势——意料之中地被忽略了。必须在各个方面强调低能耗，那是因为高达83％的美国经济增长可归因于可支配收入——GDP驱动力，更高的电力成本会让经济受到影响，因为电力是最终不可或缺的商品。

低价格天然气能源或许一直是美国商业上最大的竞争优势。实际上，去年美国能源部还将美国经济免于衰退归功于页岩气的繁荣。亨利中心天然气基准价格一直低于1.80美元，尽管2030年所有月度合同均低于2.80美元/ MMBtu。长期的低价将淹没所的有竞争，包括可再生能源，而现实情况是美国低天然气价格获得了更多需求。相比之下，在2000-2008年前的页岩气时代，天然气价格平均高于6.00美元。

从长期来看，天然气价格低意料之中：美国能源部一直预测，在未来几十年中，天然气产量将超过天然气需求1-2个百分点左右。值得庆幸的是，低成本的天然气直接给了我们低成本的电力。正如美国能源部几周前所解释的：

“低电价与低天然气价紧密相关……人们通常可以通过观察天然气价格变化来解释当前的电价。”

事实上，美国能源部将风能和太阳能归为“不可调度的技术”，这意味着通常无法部署，从而使它们与天然气等可调度能源之间的成本相比存在根本缺陷。不幸的是，诸如可再生能源是需要建造远距离的高压输电线路，而这些通常是利用天然气作为备用发电源，而可再生能源分析几乎从未考虑到这些缺陷。

舒晓玲 摘译自 福布斯

原文如下：

Another Record Year For Low-Cost U.S. Natural Gas - And Why That’s Good News

“Natural gas is one of the mainstays of global energy...it improves air quality and limits emissions of carbon dioxide,” Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency, 2019

I knew I was right. U.S. Department of Energy data is out and 2019 was another record year for U.S. natural gas demand and marketed production, respectively at ~86 Bcf/d and ~100 Bcf/d. For this post, let me focus on gas-based electricity, a sector that leads by accounting for 35-37% of our total gas use.

At 31 Bcf/d, gas “power burn” set another record in 2019, a 40% leap from 2014. At 1,600 TWh, gas now provides ~40% of U.S. electricity. What makes the rise of gas in the power sector even more amazing is the fact that our electricity demand has remained flat for a decade, at ~4,050 TWh. Even in green California, the renewable leader that has long done all that it can to “get off gas,” gas supplied 42% of the state’s generation in 2019 (85 TWh of 205 TWh) - extremely telling given how much money and policy has been deployed to force wind and solar.

Now, COVID-19 has combined with a very mild winter that has kept U.S. gas prices below $2.00/MMBtu since mid-January. Along with gas being a low-emission and cleaner fuel, such low prices obviously incentivize more use. The U.S. Department of Energy just reported our reality: “Low natural gas prices and capacity additions drive 2020 power burn growth in the first quarter.”

With some 14,000 MW of coal retirements in 2019, and since hotter temperatures often drive down the availability of wind power, I am calling summer again: “Nonstop Records For U.S. Natural-Gas-Based Electricity”- just like I did early last year.

Looking forward, the lower greenhouse gas emissions and higher flexibility that gas brings to will remain integral to the U.S. electric power system. After all, how did “Climate Week Completely Missed The Boat On Natural Gas.”

Yet, it is such a low-cost portfolio that is probably natural gas’ biggest advantage - unsurprisingly going underreported. Low energy costs must be stressed at all points by all of our leaders. That is because as much as 83% of U.S. economic growth can be attributed to disposable income - our GDP driver that higher electricity costs erode because electricity is the ultimate indispensable good (“it cannot not be used”).

Even more vital for our leaders to understand, higher energy costs are dangerously regressive, hurting the most vulnerable the most. Low-income Americans spend three to seven times more of their incomes on heating, electricity, and transportation than do high-income Americans. This is particularly devastating for our African-American and Hispanic communities, where poverty rates are substantially higher (Figure).

Cheap energy from natural gas (and oil) has been perhaps our country’s greatest competitive edge for business. In fact, just last year the U.S. Department of Energy credited the shale gas boom as saving America from a recession. The Henry Hub gas benchmark price has been below $1.80, and all monthly contracts though 2030 below ~$2.80 per MMBtu. These are insanely low long-term prices that will swamp out all competition including renewables. And the reality is that “Low U.S. Natural Gas Prices Lock In More Demand.” For comparison, in the pre-shale era 2000-2008, gas prices averaged above $6.00.

Low gas prices over the long-term surely comes as no surprise: the U.S. Department of Energy has consistently forecast our new gas production outpacing our new gas demand by about a 2-1 margin for decades to come. Thankfully, low-cost gas has directly handed us low-cost electricity. As explained by the U.S. Department of Energy just a few weeks ago:

“Wholesale electricity prices are closely tied to wholesale natural gas prices...one can often explain current wholesale electricity prices by looking at what is happening with natural gas prices.”

Finally, the truth is that the U.S. Department of Energy classifies wind and solar as “non-dispatchable technologies.” This means that they are typically unavailable for deployment, thereby making cost comparisons between them and dispatchable systems like natural gas fundamentally flawed. And unfortunately, such as the real-life needs for renewables to have more long distance, high-voltage transmission lines built, along with their need for a backup generating source that usually comes from gas, certain short-comings for renewables are almost never factored into these analyses.