随着欧佩克达成里程碑式协议 油价上涨4%

据4月13日Energy Voice报道，因投资者在权衡全球最大产油国减产的历史性协议是否足以稳定需求暴跌的市场，油价在早盘大幅震荡后走高。

伦敦原油期货价格上涨约4%，至每桶33美元，此前欧佩克+同意从5月份开始将原油日产量削减970万桶，从而结束了沙特和俄罗斯之间的价格战。在墨西哥拒绝支持周四达成的最初协议后，该组织经过几天紧张的谈判后，最终达成了一项协议。

随着石油产量下降，美国、巴西和加拿大将再减产370万桶/天，其他20国集团(g20)国家将再减产130万桶/天。20国集团的数字并不代表真正的自愿削减，而是反映了低油价已经对石油产量产生的影响，不过，这可能需要数月甚至一年多的时间才能实现。

自2月中旬以来，油价一直在直线下跌。欧佩克+协议是否足以稳定市场仍有待观察，目前市场的需求损失可能高达3500万桶/天，且库存空间正迅速耗尽。高盛集团称该协议是“历史性的，但规模可能还不够。”

截至新加坡时间下午12点49分，欧洲期货交易所(ICE Futures Europe exchange) 6月份交割的布伦特原油价格上涨4.4%，至每桶32.85美元。上周下跌了7.7%，而去年同期为66美元/桶。6月至12月交割的布伦特原油期货价格略有上涨。交易员认为，即使减产，现货供应过剩的情况仍会恶化。

纽约商品交易所(New York Mercantile Exchange) 5月份交割的西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格上涨5.1%，至每桶23.91美元，上周下跌了近20%。

高盛在一份报告中指出，假设欧佩克和其他石油生产国5月份完全遵守减产协议，欧佩克+自愿减产只会导致实际日产量从第一季度水平下降430万桶。该银行预计4月和5月的平均日需求量将减少1900万桶。

在拒绝了原协议中每天40万桶的产量份额后，墨西哥将减少10万桶/天。美国将完成墨西哥未履行的配额。

新加坡Vanda Insights创始人凡达纳?哈里(Vandana Hari)表示，墨西哥的例外可能会导致欧佩克+出现裂痕，而加拿大、挪威和巴西等非欧佩克国家也没有做出正式决定，这同样令人失望。大家对减产目标的实现表示怀疑。

欧佩克+此前通过视频会议进行了会面。在此之后，20国集团成员国的能源部长们在周五举行了一次线上会议，承诺采取“一切必要措施”，维持石油生产国和消费国之间的平衡。沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司再次推迟了一项关键的定价决定，预计沙特石油官方售价将在周一进行公布。

邹勤 摘译自 Energy Voice

原文如下：

Oil jumps to $33 a barrel following landmark OPEC deal

Oil pushed higher after swinging wildly in early trading as investors weighed whether an historic deal by the world’s biggest producers to cut output would be enough to steady a market pummeled by the coronavirus.

Futures in London rose around 4% to near $33 a barrel after the OPEC+ alliance agreed to a plan to slash production by 9.7 million barrels a day starting in May, ending a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The group reached a deal following days of intense negotiations after Mexico declined to endorse the original agreement reached Thursday.

The U.S., Brazil and Canada will contribute another 3.7 million barrels on paper as their production declines, and other Group of 20 nations will cut an additional 1.3 million. The G-20 numbers don’t represent real voluntary cuts, but rather reflect the impact that low prices have already had on output and would take months, or perhaps more than a year, to occur.

Oil prices have been in freefall since the middle of February as some of the world’s biggest economies went into lockdown to try and stop the spread of the coronavirus. Whether the OPEC+ deal will be enough to steady a market where demand losses may be as much as 35 million barrels a day and storage space is rapidly running out remains to be seen. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. called the agreement “historic yet insufficient”.

Brent for June delivery rose 4.4% to $32.85 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange as of 12:49 p.m. in Singapore. It lost 7.7% last week and has fallen from $66 at the end of last year. The global benchmark’s June-December timespread moved slightly deeper into contango, indicating that traders see the physical glut worsening even with the output cuts.

West Texas Intermediate for May delivery added 5.1% to $23.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after dropping almost 20% last week.

The voluntary reductions by OPEC+ would only lead to an actual 4.3 million barrel a day cut in production from first-quarter levels, assuming full compliance by core-OPEC and 50% by other participants in May, Goldman said in a note. The bank sees demand losses in April and May averaging 19 million barrels a day.

Mexico will reduce output by 100,000 barrels a day, after rejecting its 400,000 barrel-a-day share of the original deal. President Donald Trump helped broker a compromise that allows the Latin American nation to count some of the U.S. market-driven supply decline as its own.

The exception granted to Mexico may drive cracks through OPEC+ and the lack of a formal contribution from non-OPEC nations such as Canada, Norway and Brazil is also disappointing, said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. There will be a lot of scrutiny on compliance and also skepticism that the targeted reduction can be met, she said.

The OPEC+ alliance initially met on Thursday via video conference. That was followed on Friday by a virtual gathering of G-20 energy ministers, who pledged to take “all the necessary measures” to maintain a balance between oil producers and consumers. Saudi Aramco once again delayed a key pricing decision in anticipation of final approval of the deal, with its official selling prices now expected on Monday.