据油气新闻网站4月12日消息 ICIS最新分析显示,欧洲至少有660万吨/年的乙烯产能受到炼油厂减产或停产的影响,占欧洲乙烯产能的26%。
乙烯由炼油厂裂解装置生产,由于与疫情有关的限制措施切断了公路和航空运输,对包括航空燃料在内的石油产品的需求骤减,炼油厂受到冲击,整个地区的航空业已经停滞不前。
这些乙烯裂解装置可能会被迫降低开工率或关闭,因为这些装置依赖其连接的炼油厂获得的石脑油或液化石油气(LPG)原料。
ICIS分析表明,660万吨/年的产量约占欧洲炼油厂相关蒸汽裂解能力的50%,占该地区蒸汽裂解能力的26%。
丙烯的产能为590万吨/年,苯的产能为400万吨/年。
分析师们了解到,目前约有650万桶/日的炼油产能尚未达到额定产能。
有一些计划中的停工,但大多数是由于疫情和相关的封锁减少燃料需求。专家们认为,至少有220万桶/日的减产,而欧洲的预期吞吐量为1220万桶/日。
ICIS全球精炼团队的高级顾问迈克尔·康诺利表示:“事实上,这一降幅几乎可以肯定会更高,考虑到那些不共享此类信息的网站,降幅可能高达500万桶/日。”
炼油厂的利用率在50%-60%之间,这反映了大多数蒸馏装置的典型最低负荷。
然而,与之直接相关的裂解装置可能能够以比这更高的利用率运行。
王磊 摘译自 油气新闻
原文如下:
European ethylene capacity hit by refinery cuts
At least 6.6 million tonnes per year (mtpy), or 26 per cent, of Europe’s ethylene production capacity is threatened by oil refineries running at reduced rates or ceasing production, according to new analysis by ICIS.
The ethylene is produced by crackers attached to refineries hit by collapsing demand for petroleum products including jet fuel as coronavirus-linked restrictions cut road and air transport; aviation has come to a standstill across the region.
These ethylene crackers may be forced to reduce operating rates or close because they rely mainly on naphtha or liquified petroleum gas (LPG) feedstocks sourced from the refineries to which they are linked.
ICIS analysis suggests the 6.6 mtpy represent about 50 per cent the refinery-linked steam cracking capacity in Europe, and 26 per cent of the region's steam cracking capacity.
For propylene, 5.9 mtpy of capacity is linked, while for benzene the figure is 4.0 mtpy.
The analysts are aware of around 6.5 mbpd of oil refining capacity that is not operating at typical capacity.
There are some planned stoppages, but most are due to reduced fuels demand from coronavirus and associated lockdowns. The experts believe that at least 2.2 mbpd of reductions are in place, versus the expected forecast throughput of 12.2 mbpd for Europe.
“The reduction is almost certainly even higher in reality and could be as high as 5 mbpd when considering those sites which do not share such information,” according to Michael Connolly, Senior Consultant at ICIS global refining team.
The refineries are operating in the range of 50-60 per cent utilisation, which reflects the typical minimum turndown for most distillation units.
However, the crackers that are directly linked are probably able to run at higher utilisation rates than this.
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