俄气表示：油价或将达到45美元/桶

据4月15日Neftegaz.RU.莫斯科报道，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)首席执行官亚历山大久科夫(Alexander Dyukov)表示在接受《生意人报》(Kommersant)采访时表示，如果美国各州放松全国禁产令，石油需求改善，到今年年底，油价可能回升至每桶40至45美元。

他补充道，这是一个乐观的设想，即下半年经济活动将相对较快地复苏。现在还很难预测石油需求的走向，而指望油价大幅上涨是不现实的。

当被问及此次包括巴西、挪威和美国在内的其他产油国加入的欧佩克+协议时，他指出，现在判断该协议是否成功还为时过早。但对所有生产商来说，减产都是必要的。

欧佩克+本周末同意，从5月开始，全球市场每日减产970万桶石油，并将持续2个月，之后将放宽至每日770万桶，直到2020年底。届时，减产将降至每日580万桶，并将一直持续到2022年4月。

俄罗斯在欧佩克+削减总量中所占的份额为18%，这与该国在第一份欧佩克+协议中所占的份额相同。考虑到新加入的非欧佩克成员国，俄罗斯在总减产中所占的份额降至15%以下。

油价对欧佩克和20国集团(G20)产油国都将减产的消息反应疲弱。在出现最初的上涨之后，缩减了收益。

从需求方面来看，现在是改变石油市场监管方式的时候了。从长期来看，将焦点从5年平均供应水平转向石油需求增长是很重要的。

简而言之，欧佩克+可以将指标聚焦在全球石油需求的一部分，比如50%，并以满足这部分需求的方式来计划其产量。久科夫表示，这会防止其他石油市场参与者被挤出市场，另一方面也会抑制对昂贵的新生产项目的投资。最终将使价格保持在一个可接受的水平，即每桶50美元。

王佳晶 摘译自 Neftegaz.RU.

原文如下：

Gazprom Neft CEO: Oil could hit $45 this year

If US states ease national lockdowns and oil demand improves, oil prices could recover to $40-$45 a barrel by the end of this year, the chief executive of Gazprom Neft told Kommersant in an interview.

However, Alexander Dyukov said this was an optimistic scenario that envisaged a relatively quick recovery of economic activity during the 2nd half of the year. Right now, he said, it is not easy to predict where oil demand will go and expecting a sharp rise in prices would be unrealistic.

When asked about the OPEC+ deal that was this time joined by other producers, including Brazil, Norway, and the United States, Dyukov said it was too early to tell whether it was a success. Dyukov noted that a production cut is necessary for all producers.

OPEC+ agreed this weekend to remove 9.7 million bpd of oil from global markets, beginning in May. The cuts will be in effect for 2 months, after which they would relax to 7.7 million bpd until the end of 2020. The cuts will then drop to 5.8 million bpd, which will remain in effect until April 2022.

Russia’s portion of the total OPEC+ cuts is 18 %, Dyukov said, adding that this was the same portion that the country had in the 1st OPEC+ deal. With the new non-OPEC participants are factored in, Russia’s share of the total cuts falls to less than 15 %.

Oil prices reacted weakly to the news about the OPEC+ deal and the news that G20 oil producers will also contribute to the production cuts. After an initial spike, they trimmed their gains.

Speaking of demand, Gazprom Neft’s Dyukov told Kommersant it was time to change the way the oil market is regulated. “Over the long term,” he said, “it is important to move away from targeting the 5-year supply average to targeting the rise in oil demand.”

Simply put, according to the executive, OPEC+ can choose part of the global oil demand, say 50 %, and plan its production in such a way as to satisfy this portion. This, Dyukov says, will, on the one hand, prevent the squeezing out of other oil market players and, on the other, demotivate investments in costly new production projects. In the end, this would allow it to keep prices at an acceptable level, which Duykov sees at $50 a barrel.