IEA：下半年石油需求可能超过供应

据Oil & Gas Journal网站4月15日消息 国际能源署（IEA）在其4月份的石油市场报告中表示，如果石油产量大幅下降，部分石油进入战略储备，需求开始复苏，那么2020年下半年将出现供不应求的局面。

4月12日，欧佩克+集团的产油国同意从5月1日起，将最初的日产量减少970万桶。与此同时，G20表示支持欧佩克+成员国稳定石油市场的努力，并在某些情况下讨论了将立即或随着时间推移进行的减产。

据IEA称，欧佩克+和G20的举措将从三个方面影响石油市场。

首先，为了达到基准，5月份欧佩克+减产将为1070万桶/日，而不是970万桶/日，因为4月份产量较高。这将为未来几周的供应过剩提供一些即时缓解，从而降低库存累积的峰值。

其次，四个国家（印度、韩国和美国等）要么向工业界提供战略储备能力，以暂时储存不需要的石油，要么考虑增加战略储备，以利用价格下跌的优势。这将为即将到来的股市上涨创造额外的空间，帮助市场度过低谷。

第三，据IEA估计，由于价格下降的影响，其他生产国（美国和加拿大可能是最大的贡献国）未来几个月的产量可能下降约350万桶/日。这一供应的减少加上欧佩克+的减产，将使市场在2020年下半年转亏为盈，确保库存的积累结束，市场状况恢复到更正常的水平。

王磊 摘译自 Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

IEA: 2020 second half could see oil demand exceed supply

If oil production falls sharply, some oil goes into strategic stocks, and demand begins to recover, the second half of 2020 will see demand exceed supply, the International Energy Agency said in its April Oil Market Report.

On Apr. 12, oil producers in the OPEC+ group agreed to cut output by an initial 9.7 million b/d versus their agreed baseline, effective May 1. Meantime, G20 countries offered their support of efforts by OPEC+ countries to stabilize the oil market and, in some cases, discussed output cuts that would take place immediately or over time.

The OPEC+ and G20 initiatives will impact the oil market in three ways, according to IEA.

First, to reach the baseline, May’s OPEC+ production cut will be 10.7 million b/d and not 9.7 million b/d, as April production was high. This will provide some immediate relief from the supply surplus in the coming weeks, lowering the peak of the build-up of stocks.

Second, four countries (India, Korea, and the US.etc) have either offered their strategic storage capacity to industry to temporarily park unwanted barrels or are considering increasing their strategic stocks to take advantage of lower prices. This will create extra headroom for the impending stock build-up, helping the market get past the hump.

Third, other producers, with the US and Canada likely to be the largest contributors, could see output fall by around 3.5 million b/d in the coming months due to the impact of lower prices, according to IEA estimates. The loss of this supply combined with the OPEC+ cuts will shift the market into a deficit in the second half of 2020, ensuring an end to the build-up of stocks and a return to more normal market conditions.