IEA：4月全球石油需求将创25年新低

据油气新闻网站4月16日消息 国际能源署（IEA）表示，预计到2020年，全球石油需求将同比下降930万桶/日，创下历史新低。预计4月份的需求将比去年同期减少2900万桶/日，降至1995年的水平。

在187个国家和地区，疫情控制措施的影响已使流动性几乎停止。预计2020年第二季度的需求将比上年同期水平低2310万桶/日。IEA在其最新的石油市场报告（OMR）中称，2020年的复苏将是渐进的，12月份的需求仍将同比下降270万桶/日。

今年5月，欧佩克达成了一项历史性的减产协议，将在商定的基准水平上减产970万桶/日，全球石油供应将创下1200万桶/日的纪录。由于4月份产量较高，有效减产量为1070万桶/日。

美国和加拿大的降幅将最大，其他国家也将进一步减产。2020年第四季度，非欧佩克国家的总产量可能会下降至520万桶/日，今年全年的总产量可能比去年减少230万桶/日。

预计2020年炼油产量将下降760万桶/日，至7430万桶/日，原因是燃料需求急剧下降。预计2020年第二季度，全球炼油厂的年产量将下降1600万桶/日，所有地区都将普遍停产。尽管炼油厂开工率在下降，但预计产品库存仍将增加600万桶/日。2020年下半年随着全球市场陷入赤字，炼油活动将缓慢恢复。

早期数据显示，美国库存增加50万桶/日。经合组织（OECD）数据显示，2月份工业库存下降3540万桶，至2878万桶，这是对产品的吸引力超过了原油的增长。经合组织石油库存总量比五年平均水平低4240万桶，由于前景疲弱，目前库存量可覆盖79.2天的远期需求。3月份，原油浮式储油量增加2290万桶（70万桶/日），至10310万桶。

需求和供应的双重冲击导致3月份石油期货价格下跌40%。布伦特原油价格已从18年低点小幅回升，因生产商达成了减产协议，目前交易价为31美元/桶。需求疲弱推高WTI Midland和West Canadian Select等原油价格跌破10美元/桶。由于采取了遏制措施，汽油和喷气燃料的需求继续受到影响。

低价格威胁着一个仍将是全球经济运行核心的行业的稳定。报告称，尽管今年需求下降创纪录，但石油公司仍面临投资以抵消自然产量下降和满足未来增长的挑战。

预计到2020年，全球勘探和生产公司的资本支出将比2019年下降约32%，至3350亿美元，为13年来的最低水平。财政资源的减少也削弱了石油工业开发全世界清洁能源转型所需的一些技术的能力。

王磊 摘译自 油气新闻

原文如下：

Global oil demand set to hit 25-year low in April: IEA

Global oil demand is expected to fall by a record 9.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year in 2020, said the International Energy Agency (IEA), adding that demand in April is estimated to be 29 mb/d lower than a year ago, down to a level last seen in 1995.

The impact of coronavirus containment measures in 187 countries and territories has been to bring mobility almost to a halt. For the second quarter of 2020 (2Q20), demand is expected to be 23.1 mb/d below year-ago levels. The recovery in 2H20 will be gradual; in December demand will still be down 2.7 mb/d y-o-y, the IEA said in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR).

Global oil supply is set to plunge by a record 12 mb/d in May, after OPEC+ forged a historic output deal to cut production by 9.7 mb/d from an agreed baseline level. As April production was high, the effective cut is 10.7 mb/d.

Additional reductions are set to come from other countries with the US and Canada seeing the largest declines. Total non-OPEC output falls could reach 5.2 mb/d in 4Q20, and for the year as a whole output may be 2.3 mb/d lower than last year.

Refining throughput in 2020 is forecast to fall 7.6 mb/d y-o-y to 74.3 mb/d on sharply reduced demand for fuels. Global refinery intake is expected to plummet by 16 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20, with widespread run cuts and shutdowns in all regions. Although refinery runs are falling, product stocks are still expected to build by 6 mb/d. In 2H20, refining activity will slowly recover as the global market moves into deficit.

Early data show US stocks increased by 0.5 mb/d. OECD data show that industry stocks in February fell by 35.4 mb to 2 878 mb as a draw for products more than offset a build in crude. Total OECD oil stocks stood 42.4 mb below the five-year average and, due to the weak outlook, now provide 79.2 days of forward demand coverage. In March, floating storage of crude oil increased by 22.9 mb (0.7 mb/d) to 103.1 mb.

Twin demand and supply shocks caused oil futures prices to fall by 40 per cent in March. Brent has recovered modestly from an 18-year low as producers reached agreement to curtail output and is trading at $31/bbl. Weak demand pushed prices for crude grades such as WTI Midland and West Canadian Select below $10/bbl. Cracks for gasoline and jet fuel continued to suffer as containment measures were introduced.

Low prices threaten the stability of an industry that will remain central to the functioning of the global economy. Even with demand falling by a record amount this year, oil companies still face the challenges of investing to offset natural production declines and to meet future growth, the report said.

Global capital expenditure by exploration and production companies in 2020 is forecast to drop by about 32 per cent versus 2019 to $335 billion, the lowest level for 13 years. This reduction of financial resources also undermines the ability of the oil industry to develop some of the technologies needed for clean energy transitions around the world.