原油价格极有可能会跌至10美元

据4月20日FXstreet报道，油价跌至21年来的最低点，西德克萨斯中质原油价格跌幅超过18%，至每桶14.45美元。油价大幅下跌是主要受到需求不和石油存储空间不足的影响，减产未能解决供应过剩问题。因此，WTI原油价格极有可能跌至10美元/桶。

受疫情影响，石油需求一直在削弱。在供应方面的工作做的还不够充分，当下能源公司资本支出削减的规模还不够，美国需要削减更多石油产量。

估计当前钻机数量不断减少，要恢复到以前的水平可能还需要一两个月的时间，这意味着油价将跌至更低的水平。如果油价跌至10美元至13美元/桶(这是一种可能的情况)，那么最高限价可能为15美元至18美元/桶。

毫无疑问的是，油价在目前的水平上处于供应过剩状态，鉴于当前态势，油价很可能会继续下跌，因为钻机数量还没有触底。但对于长线投资者来说(12个月到24个月)，油价暴跌也是一种机遇。

洪伟立 摘译自 FXstreet

原文如下：

Crude oil down over 18%, can it drop to $10?

Oil has dropped to a 21-year low today. Basically, bears are out for blood. The WTI West Texas Crude Oil dropped over 18 percent today and made a low of $14.45, a price level that has surprised traders today. The steep fall in the price is because of the lack of sufficient demand and lack of storage place given the fact that the production cut has failed to address the supply glut. There is a strong possibility that WTI Crude Oil prices can drop to $10. Yes, I mean $10! And here it is why.

Since the start of the Coronavirus pandemic, oil’s demand has been crippled. There is little done from the supply side, the CAPEX cut by energy companies aren’t enough, we need organic oil production cut from the U.S.

If the price falls to $13 to $16 range (which it already has), the upside range could be $20 to $23.

If the price falls to $10 to $13, a likely scenario, the immediate ceiling level could be $15 to $18.

The bottom line is that there is no doubt that oil prices are way oversold at the current level, but given the circumstances, it is likely that the price may continue to fall further because the rig count hasn’t touched its bottom yet. But for an investor who holds a long term perspective, a time frame of 12 months to 24 months, the current plunge in oil price represents an opportunity.