减产对石油运输业产生巨大冲击

据4月21日Neftegaz.RU.哥本哈根报道，欧佩克成员国及其盟友达成的每日减产970万桶的协议，可能不足以抵消需求大幅下降带来的缺口，而且肯定会对油轮航运市场产生严重的影响。

波罗的海国际航运公会（BIMCO）首席航运分析师彼得桑德（Peter Sand）表示：“2020年第一季度是过去10年里原油油轮利润最高的季度之一，这有望为未来几个月的挑战提供流动性缓冲。一旦减产开始，盈利可能会慢慢陷入停滞。”

大型石油生产商监督市场并协调减产，在一定程度上有序地推进减产或者由个别公司推动的突然减产，这是无法预测的，但个别公司的突然性减产更有可能导致全球范围内的混乱和大范围的破产，这既不利于石油市场，也不利于油轮运输市场。

英国咨询公司Drewry认为，如果欧佩克+以外的石油产量没有显著下降，5月和6月的供应过剩规模将分别超过2000万桶/天和900万桶/天。在这种情况下，预计2020年第二季度初大约会有10- 13亿桶的闲置陆上储油能力将在5月底之前耗尽。进而将在本季度末推高对浮式存储的需求，6月份的过剩原油将每天耗费4至5艘超大型油轮的储能。

如果欧佩克+以外国家的石油产量下降约350万桶/天，而韩国、印度、中国和美国等国的SPR增加约2亿桶，可用的闲置陆上储油能力将可能吸收市场上部分过剩供应。预计今年5月至6月，油轮市场的原油运费将较目前水平大幅下降。

此外，由于供应过剩将限制油价在第二季度的上涨，目前用于浮式存储的55艘超大型油轮和24艘苏伊士型油轮中的大部分邮轮，都不太可能在第三季度的石油需求和价格出现可能复苏的迹象之前，恢复活跃的贸易。在这种情况下，原油油轮市场的运价将会飙升，因为浮式储存的增加将进一步挤压运力。

虽然浮式储能的增加能够将大量产能从市场中抽走，但这不足以抵消需求下滑和产能过剩的影响。BIMCO预计，2020年下半年市场或将发生翻天覆地的变化。

王佳晶 摘译自 Neftegaz.RU.

原文如下：

OPEC+ production cuts have dire implications for oil tankers

The agreement of the members of OPEC and its allies to cut oil production by 9.7 million barrels of crude per day is not believed to be enough to offset the massive demand drop and will certainly have dire implications for the oil tanker shipping market.

“The 1st quarter of 2020 has been one of the most profitable quarters in the past decade for crude oil tankers, which will hopefully provide a liquidity buffer for the challenging months that lie ahead. Once the production cuts set in, the profitable journey is likely to grind to a halt,” says BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand.

“The real choice is between a somewhat orderly process of production cuts where the large oil producers monitor the markets and coordinate output reductions or – alternatively – an unpredictable process of abrupt cuts driven by individual companies that can no longer afford to produce at prevailing prices. The latter process will more likely lead to chaos and widespread bankruptcies across the globe that will benefit neither the oil nor the tanker markets,” Poten said.

UK-based consultancy Drewry believes that if oil production outside OPEC+ fails to observe a significant decline in production, the market will be in surplus by more than 20 mbpd in May and 9 mbpd in June, despite the production cut by OPEC+.

In such a scenario estimated spare onshore storage capacity of about 1-1.3 billion barrels at the beginning of 2Q20 will be exhausted by the end of May. This, in turn, will inflate the demand for floating storage towards the end of the quarter and surplus oil will absorb about 4-5 VLCCs per day in June.

If oil production in countries outside OPEC+ declines by about 3.5 mbpd and countries such as South Korea, India, China and the US increase SPR by around 200 million barrels, the available spare onshore storage capacity will probably manage to absorb excess supply from the market. If this proves to be the case. Drewry expects freight rates in the crude tanker market to drop significantly in May-June from current levels.

Additionally, as oversupply will cap any surge in oil prices in 2Q20, most of the 55 VLCCs and 24 Suezmaxes currently locked in floating storage are unlikely to return to active trade before any possible recovery in oil demand and prices in 3Q20. In such circumstances freight rates in the crude tanker market will hit the roof, as a rise in floating storage will squeeze tonnage supply even further.

While the uptick of floating storage takes a substantial chunk of capacity out of the market, providing some silver living, it will not be enough to offset the sliding demand and overcapacity. according to BIMCO. Therefore, it is expected that the 2nd half of 2020 will face a radically different reality than the 1st half of the year.?