低油价是印度充实战略石油储备机会

据原油新闻2020年4月20日新德里报道，目前原油储存是原油市场需求的唯一事情。疫情影响已使原油消费消失，这迫使原油生产商和贸易商将更多的原油储存在油轮上。虽然印度将用原油填满其储油库，但储油空间的缺乏意味着印度也失去了一个机会。

世界第三大原油进口国印度正计划在未来几个月里充实其战略石油储备（SPR）。位于印度南部的3个具有储存533万吨原油能力的基地——维沙卡帕特南、芒格洛尔和帕都尔——如今可以储存原油的空间已不到一半。

时机近乎完美。分析师们一致认为，油价将继续承压。能源资讯分析公司预计，布伦特原油未来几个月的交易价格将低于每桶20美元，年底前将反弹至每桶40美元。即使按照最近的标准来衡量，恢复的原油价格也会很低，这取决于人们从疫情中恢复规模和时间。

但就战略储备而言，印度落后于主要消费国及其亚洲邻国，如日本和韩国：其中日本为5.28亿桶，韩国为2.14亿桶。相比之下，印度只有微不足道的3900万桶。对印度来说，这相当于在发生原油供应中断时只能提供9天的需求保障，而日本则是198天。

印度之所以不愿进行战略储备是因为其所涉成本高昂，不仅要建造储油罐和必要的基础设施，还要维持和持有原油。

即便如此，考虑到印度对原油的依赖，印度内阁日前批准了再建650万吨的第二阶段SPR。印度去年原油进口量平均每天大约450万桶。

欧佩克+减产vs.库存

全球原油库存水平一直是原油市场供过于求的晴雨表，这也是为什么尽管欧佩克+达成了减产协议但评论员们仍然看跌的原因。欧佩克+协议要求欧佩克、俄罗斯和其他9个盟国在5月和6月每天削减970万桶原油产量，把今年下半年的原油日产量削减770万桶，然后把明年全年的原油日产量削减580万桶，直到2022年4月。

G20的能源部长们日前也表示支持欧佩克+减产协议。国际能源署4月15日表示，中国、印度、美国和韩国将通过充实战略石油储备来支持这些全球行动，从市场每天减少200多万桶原油，这将为商业原油库存迅速增加的市场增加一些原油储存空间。

IEA署长法提赫·比罗尔表示：“这将为未来几周供应过剩的峰值提供更大原油储存空间。”比罗尔估计这些努力可能会从市场减少2亿桶原油。“假设未来3个月出现这种情况，这可能意味着每天从市场上将撤出多达200万桶的原油供应。”

全球原油库存水平将在5月份爆满。陆上原油储存空间正在迅速耗尽，现在参与者已经把目光转向估计有4亿桶的浮式储存，这将推高船只的运费率。全球迄今已有多达40艘超级油轮和20艘苏伊士型油轮已签订长期租赁合同。一些超大型油轮已被预订储存原油的时间超过了3年，这可能是有史以来最长的海上原油储存时间。

消耗陆上和海上的原油库存可能需要数年时间，而欧佩克+减产协议可能需要一段时间才能生效，届时市场很有可能已经收受到了损害。

高盛公司大宗商品研究主管Jeff Currie日前告诉记者，随着库存耗尽，任何减产的时间生效以及减产数额与需求损失不匹配的事实，都意味着欧佩克+减产协议对石油市场来说可能“规模太小、来得太迟”。

李峻 编译自 原油新闻

原文如下：

Low oil prices are an opportunity for India to stockpile: Fuel for Thought

Oil storage is about the only thing in demand in the crude market right

now. The coronavirus pandemic has obliterated consumption and forced producers and traders to store more oil on the water as land-based facilities near tank tops. While India will fill its caverns with crude, the lack of space means it’s also an opportunity lost.

The world’s third biggest oil importer is planning to fill up its strategic petroleum reserves in the coming months. India’s combined capacity of 5.33 million mt in three locations in southern Indian – Vishakhapatnam, Mangalore and Padur – is just over half full.

The timing is close to perfect. There is a consensus among analysts that oil prices will remain under pressure. Analytics sees Brent crude trading below $20/b over the next couple of months before rebounding to $40/b by the year-end. Even the recovery price is low by recent standards and depends on the shape and timing of the recovery from coronavirus as people return to their cars.

But as far as SPR is concerned, India is behind major consuming countries and its Asian neighbours such as Japan and South Korea：Japan’s SPR is 528 million barrels and South Korea has 214 million barrels. That compares to a paltry 39 million barrels for India. For India, this equates to just 9 days of cover in the event of a disruption compared with 198 days for Japan at the other end of the spectrum.

India’s reluctance stems from the high costs of involved, not only in building out the tanks and necessary infrastructure, but also in maintaining and holding the oil.

That said, the Indian Cabinet has approved another 6.5 million mt of SPR under the second phase given the country’s reliance on oil. India’s crude imports averaged around 4.5 million b/d in 2019.

OPEC+ cut vs. stocks

It is global storage levels that have been acting as a barometer of the oil market glut, and these are the reason commentators remain bearish despite the orchestrated production cut deal from OPEC+. The deal calls on OPEC, Russia and nine other allies to cut 9.7 million b/d of crude production in May and June, ramping down to 7.7 million b/d for the second half of 2020, and then 5.8 million b/d for all of 2021 through April 2022.

G20 energy ministers have also lent their support to the production cut pact. The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that India, US and South Korea would take up to 2 million b/d out of the market by filling up their strategic reserves to support these global efforts, which would add some headroom to a market filling up quickly in commercial stocks.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said: “This will provide greater headroom for the surplus supply peak in the coming weeks,” estimating these efforts could take out 200 million barrels. “Assuming they happen in the next three months this could represent as much as 2 million b/d of supply withdrawn from the market.”

Analytics sees global storage levels bursting full in May. Space on land is running out fast and now participants have turned to the estimated 400 million barrels of floating storage pushing up freight rates for ships. It estimates up to 40 supertankers and 20 Suezmaxes are already placed on long-term charter. Some supertankers have been booked to store crude for up to three years, potentially the longest ever duration for floating storage.

Draining the stockpiles on land and sea may take years and with any production cut deal likely to take time to take effect, market forces are likely to have done the damage by then.

Goldman Sachs’head of commodities research Jeff Currie told Platts last week that with storage running out, the time it takes for any production cut to take effect and the fact that the reduction won’t match up to the loss in demand, means it could be “too little, too late” for the oil market. It’s a similar view shared by Analytics.

The same could be said for India’s plans to store crude despite its good intentions.