页岩油在全球石油行业地位或将被打破

据世界石油4月22日休斯敦报道，原油价格的历史性大跌正在推动美国页岩油全面撤退，运营商停止新的钻探并关闭旧井，此举可能会使世界最大石油生产国美国的产量减少20%。

对于页岩油公司而言，西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)的价格在短短几天内就从“暴跌倒走”模式转变为危机模式，许多公司现在甚至不确定他们的石油是否还会有市场。IHS Markit的数据显示，目前每天约有175万桶原油面临停产的直接风险，而到今年年底，新投产的油井数量预计将下暴跌90%。

简而言之，这是页岩革命的一个迅速而残酷的终结，就在去年，美国还曾宣称“美国在能源领域占据主导地位”。

周一，WTI原油价格出现了历史上的首次负值，这意味着卖方曾一度不得不付钱给买方将其收走。随后，5月合约的资金紧张蔓延至6月，并波及更广泛的市场，目前油价在每桶10美元左右，远低于美国大部分石油行业的日常成本。

IHS Markit驻休斯敦分析师Raoul LeBlanc称，即便油价维持在15美元，“除了最新，生产效率最高的油井以外，该领域的所有东西都在现金成本基础上亏损。”

在最近的价格暴跌开始仅仅六周后，运营商正在关闭油井，三分之一的钻井设备退役，放弃水力压裂法，解雇5.1万名工人，大幅减薪，甚至破产。如今，随着冠状病毒疫情打击需求，再过几周，库存就会被填满，这是抑制产量的又一个因素。

上市公司削减了310多亿美元的钻井预算，而美国能源行业的不良债务已经跃升至1,900亿美元，在不到一周的时间里增加了110多亿美元。截至周二，在10家发行问题债券最多的公司中，石油公司占了5家。

Evercore ISI主办的一个网络研讨会称，今年第二和第三季度收入可能为零，这可能意味着美国大型石油勘探企业将消耗掉70亿美元的流动资金。Evercore的分析师表示，到最后，多达30%的上市页岩勘探公司可能会被迫以这样或那样的方式退出市场。

裘寅 编译自 世界石油

原文如下：

Oil rout looks to break shale’s global oil dominance

A historic crash in crude prices is driving U.S. shale into full-on retreat with operators halting new drilling and shutting in old wells, moves that could cut output by 20% for the world’s biggest producer of oil.

For shale companies, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude went from hunker-down-and-ride-it-out mode to crisis mode in just a few days, with many now unsure whether there will even be a market for their oil. Some 1.75 million barrels a day is at immediate risk of shutting down while the number of new wells being brought online is forecast to plunge almost 90% by the end of the year, according to IHS Markit Ltd.

In short, it’s a swift and brutal end to the shale revolution, which only last year had President Donald Trump proclaiming “American Energy Dominance.”

West Texas Intermediate crude prices turned negative for the first time in history on Monday, meaning at one point sellers had to pay buyers to take it away. Then, the financial squeeze on the May contract spilled over to June and into the wider market, with prices now trading around $10 a barrel, well below the daily pumping cost in large swaths of America’s oil industry.

Even at $15, “everything back in the field, except the newest and most productive wells, is losing money on a cash-cost basis,” said Raoul LeBlanc, a Houston-based analyst at IHS Markit.

Operators are switching off wells, retiring one in three drill rigs, abandoning fracking, laying off 51,000 workers, slashing salaries and even going bankrupt just six weeks after the latest price plunge began. Now, with the coronavirus pandemic destroying demand, storage is just weeks away from filling up, a further factor choking back output.

Publicly-traded companies have axed more than $31 billion from drilling budgets, while distressed debt in the U.S. energy sector has jumped to $190 billion, up more than $11 billion in less than a week. Oil companies made up five of the top 10 issuers with the most distressed debt as of Tuesday.

The potential for zero revenues in the second and third quarters this year may mean that large U.S. oil explorers burn through $7 billion in liquidity, according to a Webinar hosted by Evercore ISI. By the end of it all, as many as 30% of publicly traded shale explorers could be forced to exit the market one way or another, the Evercore analysts said.