今年全球地震行业收入同比或将蒸发77%

据今日石油网2020年4月21日报道，疫情影响和当前的低油价环境已促使全球勘探和生产运营商削减成本，取消最重要的投资计划外的所有投资计划。挪威能源研究公司雷斯塔能源的一份分析报告显示，受影响最严重的供应行业是地震行业，如果布伦特原油价格跌至每桶30美元，今年全球地震行业的收入预计将下降51%，如果布伦特原油价格跌至每桶20美元，今年全球地震行业的收入预计将比2019年的水平下降77%。

这些预测在很大程度上是由勘探和生产运营商大幅调整勘探支出以及全球许多国家为应对低油价而推迟颁发许可证而推动的。雷斯塔能源公司表示，根据新的市场动态，今年全球勘探支出预计将比去年的水平下降20%以上，仅海上勘探钻井支出就至少下降12%。

在勘探活动中，受打击最严重的地区将是在最近获得的区块中取得新的地质和地球物理研究，以及迄今在尚未核准勘探井中进行的工作。至于正在进行的海上项目，由于旅行限制和隔离规则造成的后勤物流阻滞正在影响海上作业船的人员变动，并可能导致完工延迟，这可能严重影响中小型公司的资产负债表。

雷斯塔能源公司油田服务分析师宾尼·巴戈说：“所有的地震公司都已经开始调整他们的商业计划，以便更好地为这次衰退做准备。大多数地震公司都采取了削减成本的措施，包括裁员、强制休假、地震船停止作业和降低总成本。”

雷斯塔能源公司表示，总体而言，它预计多客户地震公司能够比地震数据采集公司更有效地适应当前的低迷态势。多客户数据库可以进一步发挥拯救作用，因为与根据合同获取数据相比，多客户研究的成本要低得多。

雷斯塔能源公司表示，许多大型多客户地震公司近年来都实施了轻资产业务模式，预计这些公司能够迅速适应需求的变化。由于这些公司需要的地震船系租用，他们可以控制他们的地震活动水平，保护他们的现金流。

另一方面，使用自有地震车队的合同数据采集模式的公司可能会受到严重影响，一些合同已经被取消，未来的活动预计会减少。雷斯塔能源公司表示，这些公司可能很难维持自己的地震车队运营。

巴戈总结道：“对于大量投资于海外收购的中小企业来说，未来将是动荡的时期，因为它们更有可能成为破产和不良资产出售的受害者。由于服务公司将优先考虑支付他们的运营成本，为了生存，市场可能会在一段时间内再次降低合同价格和租船费率。”

李峻 编译自 今日石油

原文如下：

Seismic industry revenues to nearly evaporate in 2020 – Rystad Energy

The COVID-19 pandemic and the current low-oil-price environment have pushed global exploration and production operators to cut costs, scrapping all but the most vital of their investment plans. The supply industry that will suffer the most as a result is seismic, as shown by a Rystad Energy analysis, with revenues estimated to fall this year by 51% in a $30 Brent scenario and by 77% if the Brent falls to $20, compared to levels seen in 2019.

The forecasts are driven largely by considerable revisions in exploration spending from the E&P operators and delayed licensing rounds by many governments across the world in response to low oil prices. Rystad Energy said under the new market dynamics, it expects exploration spending to drop by more than 20% from its 2019 levels, with at least a 12% decline seen by offshore exploration drilling alone.

Within exploration activities, the hardest-hit area will be the acquisition of new geological and geophysical studies in recently acquired blocks and work on yet-to-be-approved exploration wells. As for the ongoing offshore projects, logistical challenges caused by travel restrictions and quarantine rules are impacting crew changes for offshore vessels and could result in completion delays that could severely hit the balance sheets of small and medium-sized companies.

“Seismic companies across the board have started to adjust their business plans to better prepare themselves for this downturn. Most companies have implemented cost-cutting measures which include layoffs, furloughs, cold stacking of vessels and general cost reductions,” says Rystad Energy Oilfield Service Analyst Binny Bagga.

In general, Rystad Energy said it expects multi-client seismic companies to be able to adjust to the current downturn more efficiently than the seismic data acquisition companies. Multi-client data libraries could further act as a savior because of the substantially lower cost associated with the multi-client studies compared to when data is acquired under a contract.

Rystad Energy said many of the major multi-client seismic companies have in recent years implemented asset-light business models and it expects these companies to be able to quickly adapt to changes in demand. Since these companies charter the vessels they need, they can control their level of activity and protect their cash flows.