石油巨头通过削减股息和运营成本应对危机

据今日油价4月26日报道，随着油价徘徊在每桶20美元左右，且金融危机才刚刚开始，石油巨头们正面临着前所未有的财务问题。挪威国家石油公司成为了第一家削减股息的大型石油公司，该公司将其股息削减了67%，且在之后可能会继续削减。

周五，意大利埃尼集团公布其第一季度利润下降94%，值得注意的是，一季度还没有受到当前经济衰退的全面冲击。埃尼集团削减了30%的支出，并将其今年的产量预期下调了10-12.5万桶/天。埃尼集团首席执行官克劳迪奥·德斯卡齐表示：" 3月以来，全球经济经历着70多年来最复杂的时期，我们无法预计2020年的市场走势。”

据英国《金融时报》和伍德麦肯兹数据显示，如果未来两年布伦特原油均价为每桶38元，那么，美国和欧洲最大的几家石油公司就有损失1750亿美元现金的风险。

各大石油公司通常会不惜一切代价守住股息。当无法同时支付资本支出和股东支出(过去10年一直如此)时，石油巨头们就会采取削减支出、出售资产和增加新债务等举措。不过，在今天的危机环境中，这一模式变得更具挑战性。在石油大量过剩、需求持续下滑的情况下，抛售资产并不是真正可以依赖的策略。首先，各类产品的买家都将非常少，至少不会以大公司希望的价格购买。此外，潜在买家的财务状况可能更糟糕，没有数十亿美元的资金可以用来投资那些不需要的项目。

这使得削减开支和债务成为主要手段。埃克森美孚在去年全年发行70亿美元债券后，仅在3月和4月就已经背负了180亿美元的额外债务。在过去的几周里，壳牌公司已经收回了200亿美元的新债务。

目前还不清楚这种策略能持续多久。自3月份以来，埃克森美孚的信用评级已被两家评级机构下调。穆迪分析师在4月初写道，埃克森美孚的现金流轨迹在进入2020年时已经相对疲弱。随着高速增长的资本投资加上低迷的石油和天然气价格，以及下游和化工行业的低盈利，导致该公司2019年的自由现金流为负值，债务也不断增加”。

独立的美国页岩公司的情况则更糟。据估计，在10天的时间里，德克萨斯州有2500名石油和天然气工人失去了工作。由于价格低廉，大陆资源公司已经关闭了在北达科他州的大部分生产。今年3月，西方石油公司削减了86%的股息，该公司的财务困境相较其他石油巨头要严重得多，在去年收购阿纳达科石油公司之后，该公司基本上无法再承担新的债务。

与独立的页岩钻探商相比，石油巨头在危机中生存的能力要强得多，可能会以一种小规模、多负债的形式生存下来。

当前危机的影响将是长期的。据Rystad能源公司称，由于目前的开支削减，到2030年，全球石油供应将减少6%，大约有价值1950亿美元的非页岩项目被推迟。

邹勤 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Big Oil’s Dilemma: Cut Dividends Or Cut Operations

The oil majors are facing a financial vice like they never have before. With oil prices hovering around $20 per barrel and no end in sight for the global pandemic, the financial pain has only just begun. Norway’s Equinor became the first large oil company to cut its dividend, slashing it by 67 percent. It may not be the last.

On Friday, Italy’s Eni reported a 94 percent decline in profit in the first quarter, a period that did not capture the full brunt of the current slump. Eni cut spending by 30 percent and lowered its production guidance for this year by 100,000-125,000 bpd. “The period since March has been the most complex period the global economy has seen for more than 70 years,” Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi said. “Like everyone, we expect a complicated 2020.”

The largest U.S. and European oil companies are in danger of burning through $175 billion in cash if Brent averages $38 per barrel over the next two years, according to the FT and Wood Mackenzie.

The majors have typically guarded dividends at almost all costs. When unable to cover capex and also shareholder payouts – as has consistently been the case over the past decade – the majors have resorted to some combination of spending cuts, asset sales and taking on new debt.

That formula becomes more challenged in today’s crisis environment. With a massive surplus of oil and the prospect of a persistent slump in demand, selling off assets isn’t really a strategy they can rely on. For one, there are going to be very few buyers for anything, at least not at prices the majors would want. Also, would-be buyers are probably in worse financial shape and don’t have billions of dollars lying around that they can throw at the majors for their unwanted projects.

That leaves spending cuts and debt as the main instruments the majors will use. ExxonMobil has already taken on an additional $18 billion in debt in March and April alone, after $7 billion in bonds issued in all of last year. Shell has taken out $20 billion in new debt in the past few weeks.

It’s unclear how long that strategy can last. ExxonMobil has already seen its credit downgraded by two different ratings agencies since March. Exxon's cash flow trajectory was “already relatively weak entering 2020, as very high growth capital investment combined with muted oil and gas prices and low [earnings in its downstream and chemicals segments] resulted in substantial negative free cash flow and rising debt in 2019,” Moody’s analysts wrote in early April.

Independent U.S. shale companies are in even worse shape. An estimated 2,500 oil and gas workers lost their jobs in Texas in a 10-day span. Continental Resources has shut in most of its production in North Dakota because of low prices. In March, Occidental Petroleum cut its dividend by 86 percent. Occidental is in a much more serious financial predicament than the oil majors, largely unable to take on new debt after its unfortunately timed takeover of Anadarko Petroleum last year.

The oil majors have a much better ability to survive the crisis than independent shale drillers, but they may survive in a smaller, more indebted form compared to before the pandemic.

The effects of the current crisis will be felt over the long-term. According to Rystad Energy, global oil supply will be 6 percent lower in 2030 than it otherwise would have been due to the current cutbacks in spending. Roughly $195 billion in non-shale projects have been delayed, Rystad said.