美国石油价格反弹

据4月29日Energy Voice报道，油价在过去两天下跌逾四分之一后攀升，波动性可能持续，因市场担心随着投资者和一只主要基金退出6月合约，油价可能再度跌破零值。

纽约期货价格在周二下跌后上涨14%。此前，全球最大的石油交易所交易基金(etf)退出了短期合约，原因是不断增加的库存迫使投资者不得不面对这样一种可能性，即可能没有任何实际的库存空间。

据知情人士透露，美国石油学会(American Petroleum Institute)报告称，西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)交割地俄克拉荷马州库欣的原油库存上周增加了249万桶。瑞银集团预计，这个关键的存储中心的储量可能在下个月达到极限。

当前，全球燃料过剩，储油能力正在经受考验。虽然全球最大的产油国已同意从下个月开始削减近1000万桶的日产量，以试图平衡市场，但这可能不足以应对消费暴跌带来的冲击。

VI Investment Corp.资深商品分析师Will Sungchil Yun在首尔接受电话采访时表示："虽然有一些空头回补，但除非库存出现萎缩迹象，或找到有效治疗冠状病毒的方法，否则价格不太可能从目前水准大幅反弹。"

GSCI商品指数（GSCI commodity index）是受养老基金和其他全球投资者追捧的热门投资产品。当标普改变投资政策时，依次出售该产品的银行会转移手中的股份，引发能源市场动荡。周二，西德克萨斯中质原油6月期货下跌逾21%，至每桶近10美元，随后收复了大部分失地。

所有基金重新调整仓位的累积效应是，6月份合约约46%的未平仓头寸在过去6个交易日蒸发。截至周二，共有31.8万个未平仓头寸在15个交易日后到期。约有61万桶5月WTI合约在同一时间点到期。

6月WTI与7月原油期货价差收窄至每桶4.35美元，与12月原油期货价差约为14美元。

API周二报告称，上周美国原油库存增加了998万桶，如果周三的能源信息数据得到证实，这将是库存连续第14周增加。彭博社调查的分析师预测，库存将增加近1200万桶。

洪伟立 摘译自 Energy Voice

原文如下：

US oil bounces back after fund switching drives wild gyrations

Oil climbed after losing more than a quarter of its value over the past two days with volatility likely to continue on concern prices may drop below zero again as investors and a major fund exit the June contract.

Futures added 14% in New York after dropping Tuesday as S&P Global Inc. told clients to immediately sell their stakes in West Texas Intermediate for June delivery into July crude. That followed a move by the biggest oil exchange-traded fund to exit near-term contracts as swelling stockpiles force investors to confront the possibility that there won’t be any space for physical barrels.

The American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, rose by 2.49 million barrels last week, according to people familiar with the data. UBS Group AG predicts the key storage hub may reach its capacity limit next month.

Storage capacity is being tested as a worldwide glut of fuels and crude expands due to the destruction in demand by the coronavirus. While the world’s biggest producers have agreed to cut daily output by almost 10 million barrels starting next month to try and balance the market, that’s unlikely to be enough to cope with the consumption hit from virus lockdowns.

“While there’s some short-covering, prices are unlikely to see a major rebound from here unless stockpiles show signs of shrinking or a cure is found for the coronavirus,” Will Sungchil Yun, a senior commodities analyst at VI Investment Corp., said by phone from Seoul.

S&P is behind the GSCI commodity index, a popular investment product tracked by pension funds and other global investors. When S&P changes the investment policy, the banks who sell the product in turn move their holdings, triggering volatile energy markets. WTI June futures slumped more than 21% to near $10 a barrel on Tuesday before paring most of their losses.

The cumulative effect of all the funds reshuffling their position is that about 46% of the June contract’s open interest has evaporated in the past six trading sessions. There were 318,000 open positions as of Tuesday, with 15 sessions left before expiration. May WTI had 610,000 at the same point before expiry.

The spread between June WTI and July oil narrowed to $4.35 a barrel, while the gap with crude for December delivery was about $14.

The API reported Tuesday that nationwide U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 9.98 million barrels last week, which would be a 14th weekly increase if confirmed by Energy Information data on Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecast inventories will gain almost 12 million barrels.