雷斯塔：2025年全球石油供应缺口500万桶/日

据油田技术5月5日报道，尽管全球正面临着有史以来最大的石油过剩，但未来几年形势将发生巨大变化。雷斯塔能源公司预测，目前注重成本的勘探与生产公司缺乏活动和投资计划，加上全球石油需求不可避免地出现反弹，预计2025年将造成约500万桶/日的供应缺口，价格有望突破68美元/桶，以平衡市场。

雷斯塔能源公司表示，2025年全球对液体的需求将达到约1.05亿桶/日。疫情发生前，该公司预计供应将略高于需求。然而，由于今年危机带来的投资和活动的急剧缩减，雷斯塔能源公司现在估计，上游行业的下行周期将使2025年的产量预测减少约600万桶/日。

为了填补这一缺口，雷斯塔能源公司认为，一些欧佩克核心成员国，如沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克和阿联酋，将能够提高产量。总的来说，这些国家可能会填补每天300万到400万桶的缺口。剩余的缺口很可能将由美国致密油的产量填补。

雷斯塔能源上游研究机构Espen Erlingsen负责人表示：“当前的低油价使中期供需平衡大大收紧。尽管致密油产量高增长，但预计未来5年，欧佩克中东国家以外的石油产量将保持平稳。随着需求有望复苏，欧佩克核心成员国将需要大幅增加供应，否则市场将面临比我们的基本情况预测更高的价格。”

今年全球勘探与生产活动预计将大幅下降，因为上游公司试图应对挑战性的市场环境，导致传统的项目批准活动降至40年来的最低水平，今年致密油投资下降近50%。较低活动水平的影响因供应部门而异。

对于致密油（包括天然气），其对产量的影响相当直接，雷斯塔能源公司已将其2020年的预测降低了近190万桶/日。新的致密油井大幅减少也将产生长期影响，因为可供生产的油井将减少。对于2025年，Rystad的致密油总产量预测被修正为1800万桶/日，比我们危机前的预测低270万桶/日。

洪伟立 摘译自 油田技术

原文如下：

Rystad Energy: global investment slowdown set to hike oil prices and cause undersupply of 5 million bpd in 2025

The Covid-19 pandemic will leave not only short-term, but also long-term scars on the oil market. Even though the world is currently facing what is arguably the largest oil glut ever recorded, the tables will turn dramatically in coming years. The lack of activity and investments currently planned by cost-conscious E&P firms, combined with an inevitable rebound in global oil demand, is set to cause a supply deficit of around 5 million bpd in 2025, Rystad Energy calculates, with prices seen topping US$68/bbl to balance the market.

In Rystad's base case scenario, global demand for liquids in 2025 will reach around 105 million bpd. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, Rystad Energy expected supply to slightly exceed demand. However, due to the steep curtailment of investments and activity that the current crisis has brought this year, Rystad Energy now estimates that the downcycle in the upstream industry will remove about 6 million bpd from production forecasts for 2025.

To fill this gap, Rystad Energy believes that some of the core OPEC countries, like Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE, will be able to ramp up production. In total these countries might fill 3 million to 4 million bpd of this gap. The remaining shortfall will most likely be filled with volumes from US tight oil. To achieve this, prices may move above our current base case, which currently stands at an average price of US$68/bbl in 2025.

“The current low oil price has tightened the medium-term supply and demand balance considerably. Despite high growth in tight oil, oil production outside the OPEC Middle East countries is expected to stay flat over the next five years. As demand is expected to recover, the core OPEC counties will need to increase their supply significantly or the market will face even higher prices than our base-case forecast,” said Rystad Energy Head of Upstream Research Espen Erlingsen.

Global E&P activity is poised to fall dramatically this year as upstream companies try to cope with the challenging market conditions, resulting in conventional project sanctioning activity falling to a 40-year low and tight oil investments dropping by almost 50% this year. The impact of the lower activity levels varies depending on the supply segment.

For tight oil (including NGL) the impact on production is rather immediate, and Rystad has reduced its 2020 forecast by close to 1.9 million bpd. The dramatic reduction in new tight oil wells will also have a long-term impact, as fewer wells will be available for production. For 2025 Rystad's total tight oil production forecast is revised to 18 million bpd, or 2.7 million bpd lower than our pre-crisis estimate.