5月份全球石油过剩状态将得到改善

据5月5日Rigzone报道称，5月份，全球石油供需失衡状态将改善，至每天1360万桶。

Rystad能源预测6月份将进一步降至610万桶/日，并称，尽管全球供需失衡情况有所改善，但库存仍将超过剩余的全球库存，数周内库存将填满。

Rystad能源石油市场分析师Louise Dickson表示：“虽然这看起来比4月份有了大幅改善，但石油市场并没有神奇地得到修复，库存问题仍然隐约可见，只有缩减产量，并给市场一些喘息的空间。”

根据Rystad能源公司表示，如果到2020年5月19日WTI合同到期时，还没有足够的产量被关闭，那么WTI价格暴跌现象仍将会发生，不排除蔓延到其他原油混合油。但公司仍然相信油价会复苏，可能最早从6月份开始，它认为2022年市场将面临紧缩的风险，价格远高于危机前的水平。

Rystad表示：“2022年需求将恢复到高于疫情发生前的水平， OPEC正在削减石油产量，美国页岩气和全球长周期生产的供应能力都将丧失，这将有助于实现这一目标。”。

洪伟立 摘译自 Rigzone

原文如下：

Global Oil Glut Set to Halve in May

The global imbalance between oil supply and demand is set to halve to 13.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in May.

That’s according to a new Rystad Energy analysis, which predicted a further fall to 6.1 million bpd in June. Rystad warned, however, that despite the improvement, the stock build will still overwhelm remaining global storage, which it says will fill “in weeks”.

“While this may seem like a drastic improvement from April, the oil market is not magically fixed,” Rystad Energy Oil Market Analyst Louise Dickson said in a company statement.

“The storage issue still looms large and will spill over onto trading floors, as buyers are left with crude they cannot physically place, and into the boardrooms of oil companies which must make very costly but necessary decisions to scale back production and give the market some breathing space,” Dickson added.

According to Rystad, if sufficient production isn’t shuttered by May 19 - the expiration of the WTI June 2020 contract - then the potential remains for another “nightmare WTI price collapse”, which it does not rule out spreading to other crude blends.

“However, given that most oil futures outside of WTI do not require the buyer to physically take oil delivery, and instead have cash settlement options, the destruction to other benchmarks should be tamer,” Rystad stated.

Rystad outlined that it expects the oil price bottom is “in front of us rather than behind us” but added that it still believes in an oil price recovery, “possibly starting as early as June”. Rystad also highlighted that it sees a risk for a tight market in 2022 with prices “much higher than pre-crisis levels”.

“This will be facilitated by a recovery in demand to above pre-Covid-19 levels in 2022, ongoing OPEC+ cuts, and a loss of supply capacity in both U.S. shale and long-cycled global production,” Rystad stated.