IEA：2020年全球能源需求将下降6%

据阿拉伯贸易5月1日消息称，国际能源机构(IEA)的数据显示，到2020年，全球能源总需求将下降6%，是2008年全球金融危机后降幅的7倍。

一份名为《国际能源署全球能源评估》的新报告称，电力需求将下降5%。

该报告称，从绝对意义上讲，下降幅度是前所未有的，相当于失去了全球第三大能源消费国印度的全部能源需求。

发达经济体的降幅预计最大，美国和欧盟的需求将分别下降9%和11%。

国际能源署执行董事Fatih Birol表示：“这是对整个能源世界的历史性冲击。在当今空前的健康全球公共卫生危机中，几乎所有主要燃料的需求急剧下降，尤其是煤炭、石油和天然气。只有可再生能源在之前闻所未闻的用电量下降期间还能坚持下去。”

Birol称：“现在确定长期影响还为时过早，但此次危机过后的能源行业将与以往大不相同。”

报告显示，停工期间电力使用的变化导致总体电力需求大幅下降。

同时，停工措施正在推动向低碳电力的重大转变，，包括风能、太阳能光伏发电、水力发电和核能。

IEA报告称，继2019年首次超过煤炭之后，低碳能源将在今年扩大其领先地位，达到全球发电量的40％，比煤炭领先6个百分点。

它补充说，由于2019年和2020年初完成的新项目的推动，风能和太阳能光伏发电量将在2020年继续增加。

曹海斌 摘译自 阿拉伯贸易

原文如下：

Global energy demand to fall 6pc in 2020, says IEA report

Overall global energy demand will fall 6 per cent in 2020 – seven times the decline after the 2008 global financial crisis, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The demand for electricity is set to decline by 5 per cent, according to a new report ‘the IEA’s Global Energy Review’.

In absolute terms, the decline is unprecedented – the equivalent of losing the entire energy demand of India, the world’s third largest energy consumer, the report said.

Advanced economies are expected to see the biggest declines, with demand set to fall by 9 per cent in the US and by 11 per cent in the European Union.

"This is a historic shock to the entire energy world. Amid today’s unparalleled health and economic crises, the plunge in demand for nearly all major fuels is staggering, especially for coal, oil and gas. Only renewables are holding up during the previously unheard-of slump in electricity use," said Dr. Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director.

"It is still too early to determine the longer-term impacts, but the energy industry that emerges from this crisis will be significantly different from the one that came before," Birol said.

Changes to electricity use during lockdowns have resulted in significant declines in overall electricity demand, the report revealed.

At the same time, lockdown measures are driving a major shift towards low-carbon sources of electricity including wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), hydropower and nuclear.

After overtaking coal for the first time ever in 2019, low-carbon sources are set to extend their lead this year to reach 40 percent of global electricity generation – 6 percentage points ahead of coal, said the IEA report.

Electricity generation from wind and solar PV continues to increase in 2020, lifted by new projects that were completed in 2019 and early 2020, it added.