5月底石油需求或将超过供应

据路透社5月9日报道，高盛大宗商品主管柯里(Jeffrey Currie)在接受《巴伦周刊》(Barron 's Market Brief)采访时表示，石油需求可能反弹至足以在本月底超过供应的水平。这在很大程度上是因为所有主要生产商都执行了减产。

然而，柯里补充道，还有大约12亿桶的库存，在油价回升之前，这些库存需要被消耗掉。柯里认为，这将分三个阶段进行。

第一批需要被处理的是由浮式储油罐存储的数百万桶石油——这是最昂贵的一种储存方式，因此，贸易商和生产商为了节省油船费用，会首先将这部分库存处理了。柯表示说，将在今年第三季度执行，石油消耗量约为4.5亿桶。今年第四季度，陆上石油库存将开始减少，最多减少4亿桶。

然而，价格的强劲反弹不太可能在短期内发生，而且这种反弹是不可取的。高盛大宗商品分析主管认为，如果布伦特原油价格升至每桶30美元以上，将刺激产量反弹，这意味着供应将出现反弹，而供应反弹将再次对价格构成压力。

需求仍是油价的关键因素，全年需求可能仍将低迷。柯里指出，4月中旬，这一数字较危机爆发前下降了约3000万。现在，原油需求量较此前降低了1900万桶/天，尽管需求已开始改善，但本月需求仍较危机前减少了1700万桶/天，6月和7月减将较危机前减少1200万桶/天。到8月，情况将会好转，需求将较危机前低500 - 600万桶/天。

王佳晶 摘译自 路透社

原文如下：

Goldman Sachs: Oil demand could exceed supply by end-May

Oil demand could rebound enough to exceed supply by the end of this month, Goldman’s head of commodities Jeffrey Currie told Barron’s Market Brief.

He noted that this would be in no small part because of the production cuts implemented by all major producers.

However, there are some 1.2 billion barrels in storage, Currie added, that would need to be drawn down before prices improve for more than a couple of hours. This, according to Currie, will happen in three stages.

The first oil in storage to go would be the millions of barrels in floating storage. It is the most expensive kind of storage, so it would make sense that traders and producers would first aim to get rid of it to save on tanker fees. Currie says this will happen sometime in the third quarter of the year. The amount of oil removed from floating storage will be around 450 million barrels. In the fourth quarter of the year, oil stockpiles in onshore storage will begin to decline, Currie said, by up to 400 million barrels.

However, a strong rebound in prices is unlikely to take place anytime soon--and such a rebound would be undesirable. If Brent rises above $30 a barrel, Goldman’s commodity analysis head argues, it would spur a rebound in production, implying a rebound in supply, and a rebound in supply will immediately pressure prices yet again.

Demand remains the key factor for oil prices, and demand will likely remain depressed throughout the year. In mid-April, Currie noted, it fell by about 30 million from pre-crisis levels. Now, demand is about 19 million bpd below pre-crisis levels. While this demand has started to improve, it would still be down by 17 million bpd from pre-crisis demand this month and by 12 million barrels in June and July. By August, things will be looking up, with demand at 5-6 million bpd below pre-crisis levels.