低油价或将加剧美国经济下滑趋势

据道琼斯5月12日消息，高盛分析师Jan Hatzius表示，油价下跌将导致能源行业出现破产潮以及减少投资，从而加剧美国经济的下滑之势。但Hatzius还称，与更广泛的衰退相比，这种拖累将很小。总的来说，他估计原油价格暴跌将令第四季度经济同比增幅减少0.25个百分点。Hatzius表示，与2015-16年上一次油价暴跌之初相比，目前能源行业资产负债表的基础更为稳定。尽管如此，他表示，非常低的油价水平意味着更多破产可能不可避免。根据高盛的预测，今年第二、三季度，能源企业的资本支出可能会同比下降50%-60%。

张春晓 摘译自 道琼斯

原文如下：

Low Oil Prices Seen Exacerbating U.S. Economic Downturn

Lower oil prices will exacerbate the downturn in the U.S. economy by causing bankruptcies and lower investment in the energy sector, says Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs. However, the drag will be small compared with the scale of the broader recession, Hatzius adds. Overall, he estimates that the crash in crude prices will cut growth in the fourth quarter from a year before by 0.25 percentage points. Balance sheets in the energy sector are on a more stable footing than at the start of the last oil slump in 2015-16, Hatzius says. Still, "the very low levels of oil prices mean that more bankruptcies are likely inevitable." Capital expenditure by energy companies is on track to drop by 50%-60% from a year before in the second and third quarters, according to Goldman's forecasts.