卡塔尔面临天然气出口危机

据彭博社5月12日报道，全球最大的液化天然气出口国受到需求疲弱和存储空间不足的限制，可能很快就会面临一个严峻的选择:要么限制产量，要么引发一场争夺市场份额的战斗，天然气市场可能会和石油市场一样，价格下跌。

卡塔尔从今年2月开始将液化天然气从亚洲运往到欧洲西北部，但这种权宜之计没有持续多久，因为疫情很快席卷了欧洲最大的几个经济体，导致卡塔尔很难找到存放未售出货物的储存地。

卡塔尔关于下一步行动的决定可能会产生深远的影响。在原油价格暴跌对液化天然气价格构成压力之际，削减主要出口产品的产量将挤压政府收入。减产还可能促使澳大利亚夺取卡塔尔作为全球最大出口国的地位。

长期以来，欧洲相对透明的价格使其成为货物运输的首选目的地。现在，随着需求的下降，越来越多的天然气被注入了储存设施，存储空间很快就被填满了。

卡塔尔向欧洲西北部输送液化天然气的数量在4月份达到峰值。过去三周，由四艘油轮组成的船队抵达了比利时的泽布吕赫港进口终端，国有卡塔尔石油公司已将这里的全部进口产能预订到2044年。

咨询公司伍德曼肯兹分析师格雷厄姆·弗里德曼（Graham Freedman）表示:“需求低迷，今年这个时候的库存量太高。未来12到18个月，这种情况似乎还会持续下去。”

卡塔尔似乎正在放缓对欧洲的出口。进口时间表显示，5月份运往欧洲西北部的液化天然气运输量不会像4月份那样上升，目前有17艘液化天然气运输船在阿联酋海岸附近闲置，多于往年同期水平。管理该国出口的卡塔尔石油公司没有回复记者的置评请求。

一旦亚洲天然气需求恢复，该公司无需将货物转往欧洲，但这可能需要好几个月的时间。与此同时，国际天然气联盟(International Gas Union)今年4月表示，全球液化天然气过剩可能会持续到本世纪中叶。

天然气生产商尚未形成一个像石油输出国组织那样的卡特尔组织，可以领导全球削减石油产量、支撑原油价格的举措实施。液化天然气供应商不希望天然气价格得到如此协调的支持，今年以来，天然气价格已下跌逾一半，降至每百万英国热量约2美元。

在争夺市场份额的战斗中，卡塔尔将在竞争对手面前占据优势。根据咨询公司Rystad Energy的数据，该公司在拉斯拉凡(Ras Laffan)的工厂生产的液化天然气，是全球第三便宜的天然气。即便如此，不断下跌的价格正将卡塔尔的液化天然气推向盈亏平衡点。

对于刚刚开始生产、仍背负沉重开支的美国运营商来说，负天然气价格将尤其具有破坏性。低于零的价格也可能导致尚未获得融资的液化项目延期。液化天然气是被冷却成液体的天然气，生产商可以在不需要管道的情况下将其出口到遥远的目的地。

美国生产商的成本高于卡塔尔，在客户取消了6月份的几批发货后，它们可能会减产。与此同时，挪威和俄罗斯已经削减了对欧洲的天然气出口。

洪伟立 摘译自 彭博社

原文如下：

Qatar and Its Lose-Lose Problem in Global Gas Fight

Hemmed in by weak demand and scarce storage, the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas may soon face a stark choice: curb output or ignite a battle for market share that has the potential -- just as in the oil market -- to turn gas prices negative.

Qatar began in February redirecting LNG cargoes away from Asia, where the coronavirus was hobbling sales, and sending them instead to northwestern Europe. That quick fix didn’t last, as the pandemic soon engulfed Europe’s biggest economies and left Qatar struggling for places to park unsold cargoes.

The small Persian Gulf state’s decision about what to do next could have far-reaching consequences. Cutting production of its main export would squeeze government revenue at a time when crude’s collapse is adding to pressure on LNG prices, some of which are linked to oil. An output cut might also enable Australia to strike a blow to Qatar’s national pride by snatching its crown as the world’s top exporter.

Europe’s comparatively transparent pricing has long made it a favored destination for cargoes. Now, with demand there slumping, more gas is going into storage facilities, and those are filling up fast.

Deliveries of Qatari LNG to northwestern Europe peaked in April. A convoy of four tankers arrived over the last three weeks at Belgium’s Zeebrugge import terminal, where state-owned Qatar Petroleum has booked all the import capacity until 2044.

“Demand is depressed, and storage is too high for this time of year,” said Graham Freedman, an analyst at consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. “It looks like it’s going to continue for the next 12 to 18 months.”

Qatar appears to be slowing shipments to Europe. Import schedules suggest deliveries into northwestern Europe won’t climb in May as they did in April, and 17 LNG tankers -- several more than usual for this time of year -- are currently idling off the emirate’s coast. Qatar Petroleum, which manages the country’s exports, didn’t respond when asked to comment.

QP won’t need to divert cargoes to Europe once demand for gas in Asia recovers, but that could take many months. Meanwhile, the global LNG surplus could persist into the middle of the decade, the International Gas Union said in April.

Gas producers have yet to form a cartel like the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which currently leads global efforts to slash oil production and prop up crude. LNG suppliers can hope for no such coordinated support for gas prices, which have plunged by more than half this year to about $2 per million British thermal units.

In a battle for market share, Qatar would have an edge on its rivals; its plant at Ras Laffan produces the world’s third-cheapest LNG, according to consultant Rystad Energy. Even so, tumbling prices are pushing Qatar’s LNG toward break-even levels.

Negative gas prices would be especially damaging for U.S. operators that only recently started production and are still burdened with heavy expenditures. Sub-zero prices could also cause delays for any liquefaction projects yet to secure financing. LNG is gas that has been chilled into a liquid, which producers can then export to far-flung destinations without the need for pipelines.

Producers in the U.S. have higher costs than Qatar and will probably cut output after customers canceled several shipments for June. Norway and Russia have already trimmed gas exports to Europe.?