油价因美国原油库存下降而上涨

据CNBC网站5月14日消息：在美国原油库存下降和国际能源署对下半年全球库存下降的预测之后，油价周四上涨，但布伦特原油基准价仍徘徊在每桶30美元左右，因需求疲软抑制了涨势。

布伦特原油期货上涨99美分，涨幅3.4%，至30.18美元/桶，而西德克萨斯中质原油期货上涨94美分，涨幅3.7%，至26.23美元/桶。

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示，经济增长疲软的“延长时期”，由于提供了一些看涨的动力，美国原油库存在15周内首次下降。

EIA周三表示，截至5月8日当周，美国原油库存减少了74.5万桶，至5.315亿桶。

现金市场正在走强，价差正在收窄，实物需求正在回升。所有这些将在未来几周内提供价格支撑，但这种信心不会持久。

包括北海在内的实际原油价格一直在攀升，六个月布伦特原油期货合约价格处于两个月来的最低水平，约为3.50美元/桶。北海是布伦特原油流的发源地。

但任何复苏都太过疲弱，无法消除今年需求的历史性下滑。

国际能源署(IEA)周四再次预测，2020年石油需求将出现创纪录的下降，不过该机构以放松封锁措施为由，下调了对降幅的预期。

随着需求增加，IEA预计下半年原油库存将每天减少约550万桶。

高盛表示，需求恢复和产量下降将使6月份全球石油市场陷入短缺。不过，该公司仍维持其夏季油价预测，布伦特原油为30美元/桶，西德克萨斯中质原油为28美元/桶。

石油输出国组织（欧佩克）周三表示，预计2020年全球石油日需求将减少907万桶，降幅大于此前预估的685万桶。

该公司表示，预计第二季度需求将出现最大降幅。

冯娟 摘译自 CNBC

原文如下：

Oil prices rise on dip in US crude stockpiles, IEA data

Oil prices rose on Thursday after a drop in U.S. crude stocks and an IEA forecast for lower global stockpiles in the second half, but the Brent benchmark still hovered around $30 a barrel as a weak demand picture curbed gains.

Brent crude futures were up 99 cents, or 3.4%, to trade at $30.18 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures were 94 cents, or 3.7%, higher at $26.23 per barrel.

Prices have ticked up in the last two weeks as some countries relaxed coronavirus restrictions and lockdowns to allow factories and shops to reopen.

However the emergence of new cases in South Korea and China has raised concerns over a possible second wave of infections that would weigh on economic recovery and fuel demand.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned on Wednesday of an “extended period” of weak economic growth.

Providing some bullish impetus, U.S. crude inventories fell for the first time in 15 weeks.

U.S. crude stockpiles were down by 745,000 barrels to 531.5 million barrels in the week to May 8, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

“Cash markets are strengthening, time spreads are tighter and physical demand is picking up. All these will provide price supports in the next few weeks, but this confidence will not last,” PVM said in a report.

Physical crude prices, including in the North Sea which is home to the Brent crude stream, have been climbing and the six-month Brent futures contango is at its shallowest in two months at around -$3.50 a barrel.

But any recovery is seen as too weak to erase a historic demand fall this year.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday again forecast a record drop in demand in 2020, although it trimmed its estimate of the fall, citing easing lockdown measures.

As demand increases, the IEA expects crude stockpiles to shrink by around 5.5 million barrels per day in the second half.

Goldman Sachs said recovering demand and lower output would push the global oil market into deficit in June. However it maintained its summer price forecasts of $30 per barrel for Brent and $28 per barrel for WTI.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Wednesday it expected 2020 global oil demand to shrink by 9.07 million bpd, a deeper contraction than its previous forecast of 6.85 million bpd.

It said it expected the second quarter to see the steepest decline in demand.