欧佩克将今年石油日需求预测下调900万桶

据今日油价4月13日报道，欧佩克周三削减了对今年全球石油需求的估计，同时削减了对非欧佩克供应的预测，因为由于需求暴跌，低油价和有限的存储能力，欧佩克+协定之外的石油生产国加速了产量削减。

在如今发布的备受关注的《月度石油市场报告》中，欧佩克再次将今年的全球石油需求预测下调了223万桶/天，并预计2020年的全球石油需求将比2019年减少907万桶/天。

欧佩克表示，事实上，2020年的需求萎缩可以通过政府比预期更早地放松与疫情相关的措施，以及对实施的非常规刺激计划做出更快的经济增长反应来缓解。

除了大幅下调需求预估外，OPEC还下调了对非OPEC国家今年供应的预估，将其从上月的每日预估下调近200万桶。目前，受“包括大型石油公司在内的石油公司——尤其是北美地区——宣布的停产或减产计划”的推动，今年非欧佩克国家的石油日产量预计将减少350万桶。

据欧佩克称，“根据不同的消息来源和公司公告，到目前为止，包括石油巨头在内的美国生产商迄今已在今年第二季度将日产量至少降少了150万桶，这可能是通过关闭成本较高的油井，部分减少选定油井的产量，推迟“投产”油井来实现的。

今年美国石油供应进一步下调了130万桶/日，到目前为止，与2019年相比，2020年的石油供应下降了140万桶/日。

根据欧佩克的估计，OPEC+协议以外的产油国已宣布，截至5月6日，总计减产约360万桶/天，以应对需求不足、油价低迷、供应过剩和储存能力有限的局面。

欧佩克表示，为解决当前全球石油市场严重失衡而进行的快速供应调整，已开始显示出积极的反应，预计未来几个季度将加快再平衡步伐。

郝芬 译自 今日油价

原文如下：

OPEC Slashes 2020 Oil Demand Forecast By 9 Million Bpd

OPEC slashed on Wednesday its global oil demand estimates for this year while cutting its forecast for non-OPEC supply as oil producers outside the OPEC+ pact accelerate production curtailments due to the demand crash, low oil prices, and limited storage capacity.

In its closely watched Monthly Oil Market Report published today, OPEC revised down, again, its global oil demand forecast for this year by a massive 2.23 million barrels per day (bpd), and now sees global oil demand falling by 9.07 million bpd in 2020 compared to 2019.

“Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages,” the cartel said.

Along with slashing demand projections, OPEC also took an ax to its forecast for non-OPEC supply this year, revising it by nearly 2-million-bpd from last month. Currently, non-OPEC supply is expected to drop by 3.5 million bpd this year, driven by “production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America.”

“According to different sources and company announcements, US producers – including oil majors – have so far cut production by at least 1.5 mb/d in 2Q20, which is likely to be achieved by shut-ins of higher-cost wells, partial reductions in output of selected wells and the deferral of ‘putting on production’ wells,’’ OPEC said.

U.S. oil supply this year was further revised down by 1.3 million bpd to now show a decline of 1.4 million bpd in 2020 compared to 2019.

According to OPEC estimates, producers outside of the OPEC+ pact had announced combined cuts of around 3.6 million bpd as of May 6, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply, and limited storage capacity.

“The speedy supply adjustments in addressing the current acute imbalance in the global oil market has already started showing positive response, with rebalancing expected to pick up faster in the coming quarters,” OPEC said.