需求回升 油价上涨

据CNBC网站5月14日消息：油价上周五上涨，创下连续第三周的涨幅。数据显示，在封锁逐步放松后，原油需求有所回升，人们对全球供应过剩可能开始消退的期望大大提高。

布伦特原油上涨1.14美元，至32.27美元/桶，涨幅为3.66%，而西德克萨斯中质原油上涨5.9%，至29.52美元/桶，前一交易日上涨9%。

在石油输出国组织(欧佩克)和其他主要生产国减产之际，需求方面也出现了亮点。上周五发布的数据显示，随着炼油厂加大运营力度，原油日产量出现反弹。

荷兰国际集团研究分析师在一份报告中表示:“市场环境正在明显改善。”“但我们仍然认为，鉴于目前市场仍处于盈余状态，短期内上行空间有限。因此市场有大量库存可供消化。”

国际能源机构称，预计今年下半年原油库存每天将减少约550万桶。与此同时，国际能源署周三表示，美国原油库存15周来首次下降。

减产将推动库存下降的趋势，但美国原油不太可能出现强劲上涨。

澳新银行高级市场分析师爱德华莫亚表示，" WTI原油将很难突破30美元/桶的水准，直到美国经济前景改善，部分下行风险缓解。"

在生产方面，欧佩克及相关生产商（统称为欧佩克+）已同意减产近1,000万桶/天，本周沙特阿拉伯延长了6月减产计划，承诺将减产近500万桶/天。

据知情人士消息，全球最大的石油出口国沙特阿美公司6月份将向至少三个亚洲买家减少原油供应，减少量高达30%。

欧佩克+希望在5月和6月会议后继续全面减产。

冯娟 摘译自 CNBC

原文如下：

Oil jumps 6%, posts third week of gains amid signs of demand pickup

Oil prices rose on Friday, posting their third week of gains, as data showed demand for crude picking up in China after the easing of curbs to stem the coronavirus outbreak, boosting hopes that the global supply overhang may start to fade.

Brent crude was up $1.14, or 3.66%, to trade at $32.27 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate settled up 5.9% to trade at $29.52 per barrel, having jumped 9% in the previous session.

Amid supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers, bright spots are also emerging on the demand side. Data released on Friday showed China’s daily crude oil use rebounded in April as refineries ramped up operations.

Still the market mood remains far from euphoric, with the coronavirus pandemic far from over and new clusters emerging in some countries where lockdowns have been eased.

“The fundamentals in the market are clearly improving,” ING Research analysts said in a note. “But we still believe that in the near term, the upside is limited given that we are still in a surplus environment ... There is plenty of inventory for the market to digest.”

There is optimism that stockpiles may be on the wane.

The International Energy Agency said it expects crude inventories to fall by about 5.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second half of this year.

Meanwhile U.S. crude inventories fell for the first time in 15 weeks, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Output cuts will boost the trend towards lower inventories, but U.S. crude is unlikely to see strong gains.

“WTI crude will struggle to break above the $30 level until both the economic outlook improves for the U.S. and some of the downside risks ease,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

On the production side, OPEC and associated producers — collectively known as OPEC+ — had already agreed to cut output by a record of nearly 10 million bpd before Saudi Arabia this week extended its planned reductions for June, pledging to lower supply by nearly 5 million bpd.

Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil exporter, reduced the volume of crude it will supply to at least three buyers in Asia by as much as 30% for June, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

OPEC+ now wants to extend overall production cuts beyond May and June when the group next meets, sources told Reuters earlier this week.