二季度全球石油日产量预计将减少1700万桶

据路透社5月17日报道，2020年第二季度，将出现石油工业历史上最大规模的产量削减和停产。IHS Markit目前预计，在2020年4月至6月期间，将有多达1700万桶/天的石油产量(其中近1400万桶/天为原油产量)被削减或停产。

IHS Markit副总裁兼石油市场主管吉姆·伯克哈德：“全球石油供应正在经历一场停产热潮，正迅速、残酷地调整到与需求匹配的较低水平。所有生产国都受制于这种残酷的市场力量。”

IHS Markit预计，2020年第二季度的石油需求将比一年前减少2200万桶/天。这种需求的崩溃，加上低油价、存储限制和政府规定的削减，正在推动全球范围内非同寻常的石油产量削减和停产现象。

北美和欧佩克成员国，以及独联体国家，尤其是俄罗斯，预计将成为减产的主要来源。确切地说，在哪里、为什么以及如何减产是一个复杂的问题，没有固定的方程式，因为石油的生产环境多种多样，影响因素也各不相同。

不过，IHS Markit确定了影响减产决定的三个关键因素:

一是技术和后勤因素，包括重新恢复生产的复杂性。技术因素与操作复杂性的程度有关，如地形、油田衰竭、油藏驱动、生产系统配置和油藏流体组成。复杂性和油田成熟度会影响重新启动生产的难易程度，包括产量是否可能永远损失或只是延迟。其他与技术相关的因素包括健康、安全以及工人的可用性。物流因素包括运输需求、运输选择和石油储存空间。

二是财务方面的因素。包括营业利润率、当前油价水平、油价的未来预期、运营商的财务状况、资金可用性和其他支出选择，如决定将资金用于其他项目。

三是监管和合同条件因素。这些条件包括确保遵守政府的关井要求、政府调整生产的命令和合同义务。遵守欧佩克协议削减产量的政府命令就属于这一类。提供伴生气的义务也是可能影响生产决策的合同条件。对于与下游资产(如炼油厂和石化工厂)整合的上游业务，下游市场状况和下游资产需求可能会影响有关上游产出的决策，特别是当这些资产归联合所有时。

保罗·马克威尔表示:“在哪里、为什么以及如何减产的问题上，技术、后勤、监管、合同和财务状况的广泛差异意味着没有单一的答案。但在目前的市场环境下，减产的目标非常明确，且全球都要参与。”

王佳晶 摘译自 路透社

原文如下：

Global oil production expected to be cut by as much as 17m BPD in Q2 – IHS Markit

The second quarter of 2020 will see the largest volume of liquids production cuts, including shut-in production, in the history of the oil industry.

IHS Markit now expects much as 17 MMb/d total liquids output (which includes nearly 14 MMb/d of crude oil production) to be cut or shut-in during the period between April and June 2020.

“The Great Shut-In, a rapid and brutal adjustment of global oil supply to a lower level of demand is underway. All producing countries are subject to the same brutal market forces. Some will be impacted more than others. But there is nowhere to hide.” – Jim Burkhard, vice president and head of oil markets, IHS Markit.

IHS Markit expects oil demand in the second quarter of 2020 to be 22 MMb/d less than a year ago. This collapse in demand combined with low oil prices, storage constraints and government ordered cuts are driving what is an extraordinary level of liquids production cuts and shut-ins around the world.

North America and OPEC members, as well as countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States—particularly Russia—are expected to be the source of most of the production cuts.

Exactly where, why and how supply cuts will take place is a complex matter. There is no fixed equation. Oil is produced in a wide variety of environments, which means there is no fixed equation and decision factors vary.

However, IHS Markit has identified three key factors that shape production cut decisions:

Technical and logistical factors—including restart complexity: Technical factors relate to the degree of operational complexity such as terrain, field depletion, reservoir drive, production system configuration and reservoir fluid composition. Complexity and field maturity influence how easy or difficult restarting production could be, including whether output could be forever lost or simply deferred. Other technical-related factors are health, safety, and worker availability. Logistical factors are offtake demand, transport options, and oil storage availability.

Financial considerations: These include operating margins, current oil price levels, future expectations of the oil price, financial health of the operator, capital availability and alternative spending options—such as deciding to spend money on other projects.

Regulatory and contractual conditions: These include ensuring compliance with government requirements for shutting-in wells, government orders to adjust production, and contractual obligations. Government orders to comply with the OPEC+ agreement to cut production fall into this category. Obligation to deliver associated gas (i.e. gas that is produced as byproduct from a crude oil well) is an example of a contractual condition that could impact production decisions. For upstream operations that are integrated with downstream assets—such as refineries and petrochemical facilities—downstream market conditions and needs of downstream assets could impact decisions about upstream output, especially when the assets are under combined ownership.

“When it comes to the where, why and how of production cuts, the wide range of technical, logistical, regulatory, contractual, and financial conditions means there is no single set of answers. But under these market conditions, it is pretty clear where production will be cut. Nearly everywhere.” – Paul Markwell, vice president, global upstream oil and gas, IHS Markit.