油价每桶上涨逾1美元

据路透社5月18日报道，油价周一攀升逾1美元/桶，受减产和需求逐步复苏的迹象支撑，且美国原油期货没有显示出上月合约期满后价格大跌的迹象。

格林尼治时间06：34，布伦特原油LCOc1上涨1.33美元，至每桶33.83美元，涨幅4.1%，此前曾触及4月13日以来的最高点。美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货CLc1上涨1.65美元，至每桶31.08美元，涨幅5.6%，此前曾升至3月16日以来最高位。较为活跃的7月合约CLc2报31.05美元/桶，上涨1.53美元。

AxiCorp首席全球市场策略师斯蒂芬英尼斯(Stephen Innes)在一份报告中表示:“随着流动性限制放松力度的加大，油价可能会显示出进一步的上行势头。”

WTI 6月合约将于周二到期，但几乎没有迹象表明，WTI将重现上月5月合约到期前夕的历史性暴跌。有迹象显示，原油和衍生燃料需求正从低点回升。

由于美国能源公司连续第二个星期削减石油和天然气钻井平台的数量，石油产量也在下降。这在一定程度上缓解了人们对西德克萨斯中质原油合约交割地——俄克拉荷马州库欣存储空间不足的担忧。

美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell) 在今年晚些时候发表对经济复苏的乐观展望，这种乐观情绪得到了加强。鲍威尔在广播讲话中称:“如果不出现第二次冠状病毒疫情，我认为，美国经济将在今年下半年稳步复苏。”

支撑油价的还有石油输出国组织(OPEC)及其盟友的减产举措，其中包括俄罗斯。世界最大的石油出口国沙特阿拉伯上周宣布，将在6月份再减产100万桶/天，而欧佩克则希望在6月份会议结束后继续减产。据科威特《Al Rai报》报道，科威特和沙特阿拉伯已同意从6月1日起，在一个月内停止哈夫吉联合油田的石油生产。

欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)预计，由于石油需求只是缓慢回升，大幅减产将持续到2021年。该组织的分析师在一份报告中称:“随着政府放松封锁，道路燃料的需求正在逐渐上升，但复苏将是缓慢的。”

邹勤 摘译自 路透社

原文如下：

Oil prices rise more than $1 ahead of June WTI contract expiry

Oil prices climbed by more than $1 a barrel on Monday, supported by output cuts and signs of a gradual recovery in demand amid easing coronavirus curbs, with U.S. oil showing no signs of last month’s contract expiry price rout.

Brent crude LCOc1 was up $1.33, or 4.1%, at $33.83 a barrel by 0634 GMT, after touching its highest since April 13. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was up $1.65, or 5.6%, at $31.08 a barrel, after rising to its highest since March 16. The more active July contract CLc2 was at $31.05, up $1.53.

“Oil prices may show further upside momentum as the easing in mobility restrictions grows,” said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at AxiCorp in a note, referring to curbs that were designed to counter the coronavirus.

The June WTI contract expires on Tuesday, but there was little indication of WTI repeating the historic plunge below zero seen last month on the eve of the May contract’s expiry amid signs that demand for crude and derived fuels is recovering from its nadir.

Production is also falling as U.S. energy firms cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating to an all-time low for a second consecutive week. That partly helped ease concerns about the WTI contract’s delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma, running out of space.

The positive mood was reinforced as U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell issued an optimistic outlook for economic recovery later this year.

“Assuming there is not a second wave of the coronavirus, I think you will see the economy recover steadily through the second half of this year,” Powell said Sunday night in broadcast remarks.

Also supporting oil prices are production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+.

The world’s top exporter Saudi Arabia announced last week that it would cut an additional 1 million barrels per day in June, while OPEC+ wants to maintain existing oil cuts beyond June when the group is next due to meet.

Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have agreed to halt oil production from the joint Al-Khafji field for one month, starting from June 1, Kuwait’s Al Rai newspaper reported on Saturday.

Eurasia Group expects significant supply cuts to be maintained into 2021 as oil demand is only slowly picking up.

“Demand for road fuel is gradually rising as governments ease lockdowns, but recovery will be slow and there is a risk of repeat COVID-19 outbreaks and quarantine orders,” its analysts said in a note.