美国页岩行业或将拖累石油市场复苏

美国页岩行业或将拖累石油市场复苏

中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价5月17日报道，全球石油市场遭受重创，但最严重的冲击莫过于美国的页岩地区。上个月，油价暴跌导致WTI基准价格跌至每桶近40美元的历史最低点。油价暴跌是国际石油需求严重下降的结果，而随后沙特和俄罗斯这两个主要欧佩克+成员国之间的油价战争使情况变得更加糟糕。在这两个石油国家的较量中，全球石油供过于求的局面迅速扩大，导致了严重的供应过剩和石油储备空间不足，这种状况一直持续到了今天。

在全球石油市场遭受这些打击之后，二叠纪盆地被一波破产浪潮席卷，工人休假或被解雇。据《休斯敦纪事报》报道，美国的钻机数量比一年前减少了62%，如今活跃的钻机数量相当于十多年前（2009年）的水平。福布斯报道，整个北美大陆, 油井关闭的数量和整体石油产量下降的幅度甚至超过分析师预测, 由于油价低、储油罐满，石油行业正按部就班地在6月底前将每天约170万桶的产量撤出市场。

无论在美国还是在其他地方，石油生产的巨大停滞的情形下，存在的一线希望是，石油市场正在缓慢地显示出一些复苏的早期迹象。周一，沙特阿拉伯发表了一份声明称，未来几个月将实施更严厉的减产措施，随后，市场反应迅速，价格(尽管幅度不大)上涨。沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司(Saudi Aramco) 6月份日产量将从4月份的1200多万桶下降到750万桶。科威特和阿拉伯联合酋长国还宣布，其减产量甚至超过了承诺的水平。这是欧佩克自本月1日起每日减产970万桶之后的额外减产。

随着中东减产和美国页岩气市场经济放缓,许多分析师看好石油市场的未来,。据《福布斯》援引Rystad Energy的一份新闻稿称，一些分析师甚至预测，到2025年，市场供应量将大幅不足，达到每天500万桶的水平。还有一些人称，油价将从100美元/桶的峰值掉下来，这个数字是人们预测2050年的油价。

《福布斯》写道:“一个大问题是，美国页岩油生产商是否会在油价高企时重新启动生产或完井作业，以赚取正现金流。”朱利安·李本周在彭博社发表的一篇文章中也表达了类似的担忧:“目前面临着双重风险：过早解除封锁可能导致病毒感染和死亡的第二次高峰；过早放松对石油生产的严格限制可能导致第二次油价暴跌。”总而言之，美国页岩需要减速才能生产。

但是，美国把大部分减产和紧缩承诺留给欧佩克国家和中东国家，这不仅危及美国自身石油市场的反弹，而且危及整个全球石油市场的恢复潜力。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Could Crush The Oil Market Recovery

Oil markets have taken a beating around the globe, but nowhere has the pummeling been worse than in the United States shale patch, where the oil price crash plunged the West Texas Intermediate crude benchmark to nearly $40 below zero per barrel last month in a historic rock bottom moment. The oil price crash was the result of a severe decline in international oil demand thanks to the spread of the novel coronavirus, made infinitely worse by an ensuing oil price war between the leading OPEC+ members of Saudi Arabia and Russia. As the two petro-nations duked it out, the global oil glut ballooned to a massive oversupply and oil storage deficiency that persists today.

In the wake of these blows to the global oil markets, the Permian Basin has been swept with a wave of bankruptcies and fired and furloughed workers. “The U.S. rig count has plunged by 62 percent from a year ago,” and is now equal to the number of rigs drilling over a decade ago, in 2009, according to the Houston Chronicle. Across the North American continent, the shutting in of wells and overall oil production has plummeted even faster than analysts predicted, and “the industry is on pace to take about 1.7 million barrels a day of production off the market by the end of June in response to low prices and full storage tanks,” reports Forbes.

The silver lining to this huge halt in production, both in the United States and internationally, is that oil markets are slowly showing some early signs of recuperation. On Monday an announcement from Saudi Arabia, the world’s second-largest oil producer after the U.S., announced that it will impose even more austere production cuts in the coming months, and markets quickly (albeit modestly) rose in response. “Saudi Aramco, the state-controlled oil company, will produce 7.5 million barrels a day in June, down from more than 12 million in April,” reported Barron’s. Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates also announced that they would cut their production levels by even more than they had committed to. This is on top of OPEC’s 9.7 million barrels a day production cut, which began on the first of this month.

With the production cuts from the Middle East and economic slowdown in the U.S. shale play, many analysts are bullish about the future of oil markets, with some even predicting “a massively under-supplied market — to the tune of 5 million barrels a day — by 2025,” according to Forbes in reference of a Rystad Energy press release, and others claiming that $100 barrels are coming down the pike.

“But a big question is whether U.S. shale producers could spoil the party by restarting shut-in production or completing wells the moment that prices rise high to earn any positive cash flow,” writes Forbes. Julian Lee expressed similar concerns in an opinion piece for Bloomberg this week, writing: “There’s a double risk on the horizon: Just as lifting lockdowns too soon could bring a second spike in virus infections and deaths, loosening the hard-fought restraint in oil production too soon risks a second oil-price collapse.” Summing up these sentiments, just this week Oilprice published the rather succinct headline and assessment that “U.S. Shale Needs To Slow Down To Survive”.

But the United States, by leaving most of the production cuts and austere commitments to OPEC countries and the Middle East, is endangering more than just its own oil rebound--it’s endangering the comeback potential for the entire global oil market.