明年国际市场天然气价格可能会翻番

据美国钻井网站2020年5月15日休斯顿报道，今年4月份，美国的页岩油钻井企业的命运发生了明显逆转。4月20日，西德克萨斯中质原油5月份交货价格一度跌至每桶- 40.32美元，之后又反弹至零美元以上。这是有史以来第一次交易商们花钱购买原油。供应过剩加上对俄克拉荷马州库欣有限储存空间的担忧正在挤压着美国的页岩行业。自2009年12月以来没有看到的创历史新低的天然气价格从另外一方面反映了美国石油的现状，因为美国40%的天然气产量是来自石油生产过程中产生的伴生气。

当前天然气价格偏低的原因

即使在目前的COVID-19危机之前，天然气价格在2019年12月也非常低，仅为每百万英热单位2.33美元，这是因为天然气供应因暖冬，美国、中国和世界其他地区的经济增长放缓以及美国，非洲和澳大利亚新出口项目投产导致供应过剩大大超过了需求。COVID-19疫情的爆发和传播使情况变得更加糟糕。EBW分析集团首席执行官安迪·魏斯曼说：“美国电力需求由于与冠状病毒疫情相关的遏制措施正开始迅速下降。而且，由于电力消耗现在是美国天然气使用的主要驱动力，天然气在美国的需求已经下降。

井运营商正在减少钻井活动

行业观察人士表示，未来一年，原油价格看上去将继续低迷。相比之下，一些分析师预计天然气价格将在今年秋季前上涨作为对低油价的回应，越来越多的勘探和生产（E&P）公司正在被迫削减钻井活动，并把钻井预算减少30%至50%。根据挪威雷斯塔能源公司今年4月公布的最新统计数据，这已经反映在新的水力压裂井数量的减少上，从今年1月的780口减少到了4月的162口。美国政府自己的估计数显示，到明年前，原油日产量将从1320万桶的峰值下降66万桶。由于原油产量下降，天然气产量也会下降，而天然气价格将会上涨。

天然气价格可能翻番

美国能源信息署(EIA) 4月份的报告预计，由于冬季取暖需求增加，工业活动复苏，今年秋季天然气价格将上涨。在4月初，天然气价格仅为1.64美元/百万英热单位(MMBtu)，这是自2009年12月以来的最低价格。高盛公司分析师萨曼塔?达特预计，到2020-2021年冬季前，天然气价格将跃升至3.5美元/百万英热单位，到2021年夏季前将达到3.25美元/百万英热单位。美国银行对此表示赞同，但认为明年的天然气价格涨幅仅为每百万英热单位2.45美元。

气价上涨的影响

天然气价格上涨的影响可能会阻止德克萨斯州和美国中西部地区的数百家负债累累的小型独立生产商破产或关井，这些生产商占83%的石油产量和90%的天然气产量。

天然气价格回升可能会激励勘探和生产公司减少天然气放空燃烧和排放，并将这种价值更高的商品出售给当地买家。即将竣工的几条天然气外输管道也将向墨西哥湾沿岸的液化天然气加工厂和急需天然气的墨西哥开放。正如一位行业观察人士所言，在这个节气，页岩油生产商应该把天然气作为未来几个月的主要收入来源以及把石油作为副产品。

李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站

原文如下：

Natural Gas Prices Could Double Next Year|

April has seen a marked reversal of fortunes for shale oil drillers in the United States. The price for May deliveries of West Texas Intermediate crude briefly dropped to minus $40.32 per barrel on 20 April,[i] before rebounding to over zero. For the first time ever, traders were paying to have crude taken off their hands. The supply glut, combined with fears of limited storage space in Cushing, Oklahoma running out, is crushing the shale industry. The record low gas price, not seen since December 2009, mirrors oil since 40 percent of America’s natural gas production is associated gas derived from oil production.

Reasons for the current low price of natural gas

Even before the current crisis, natural gas prices were unusually low at just $2.33 in December 2019,[ii] as supply greatly exceeded demand thanks to a mild winter, a slowdown of economic growth in the U.S., China and the rest of the world as well as a glut in liquid natural gas thanks to new export projects coming online in the U.S., Africa and Australia. The arrival and spread of COVID-19 is turning things from bad to worse. “U.S. electricity demand is beginning to rapidly decline due to coronavirus-related containment measures” states Andy Weismann, CEO of EBW Analytics Group on an industry website. And, since electricity consumption is now a major driver for gas usage in the U.S., demand for gas has fallen.

Well operators are cutting back on drilling

Crude oil prices look subdued for the coming year according to industry observers. By contrast, some analysts expect natural gas prices to rise by the fall for, in response to low crude prices, an increasing number of E&P companies are being forced to cut activity and reduce drilling budgets by between 30 and 50 percent. This is already being mirrored in a reduction in new fracked well-starts from 780 in January to just 162 in April 2020, according to recent statistics from Rystad Energy, April 2020. The U.S. government’s own estimates show output falling by 660,000 barrels per day by next year, from a peak of 13.2 million barrels a day. As crude output declines so will natural gas output and the price of the latter will rise.

The price of natural gas could double

The EIA’s April note forecasts rising gas prices in the autumn, in anticipation of higher winter demand for heating and a revival of industrial activity. At the start of April, gas was priced at just $1.64 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the lowest it has been since December 2009. Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart expects gas prices to jump to $3.50 / MMBtu gas by winter 2020-2021 and reach $ 3.25 / MMBtu by summer 2021. Bank of America concurs but puts the rise to just $ 2.45 / MMBtu in 2021.

Impact of higher gas prices

The impact of higher natural gas prices could prevent hundreds of debt-laden small independent producers across Texas and the Midwest, who account for 83 percent of oil and 90 percent of gas output, from going bankrupt or shutting wells.

The return to better natural gas prices could incentivize E&P companies to reduce flaring and venting of gas and sell this higher valued commodity to local buyers. The upcoming completion of several gas takeaway pipelines will also open access to Gulf coast LNG processing plants and gas-hungry Mexico. At this juncture, as one industry observer put it, shale oil producers should regard natural gas as their main source of income in coming months and oil as a by-product.