IEA：全球石油需求恢复需要数年时间

据油价网巴黎报道，国际能源署(IEA)署长法提赫·比罗尔日前在接受《海湾情报》记者采访时表示，全球石油需求将至少需要一年，甚至更长时间才能恢复到COVID-19危机前每天1亿桶的水平。

比罗尔说，全球石油需求恢复的速度将主要取决于全球经济增长和第二波COVID-19新冠肺炎感染的可能性，后者可能会导致更严格的封锁。

IEA在其4月份发布的石油市场报告中说，由于许多国家采取了前所未有的封锁措施来遏制新冠病毒的传播，冠状病毒疫情大流行已经抹去了过去10年的全球石油需求增长。IEA在4月中旬曾预计，全球4月石油日需求量将减少2900万桶，同比将减少创纪录的930万桶。

比罗尔对《海湾情报》记者表示，今年4月份确实是石油市场和石油行业的“黑色4月”，WTI原油期货价格在4月份有史以来首次跌至负值。

比罗尔称，尽管许多国家先后解除了封锁，但IEA仍预计今年全球石油需求将下降。

当被问及美国页岩行业的命运时，比罗尔乐观地表示，危机过后，当需求恢复正常时，美国页岩油产量将再次上升。

“页岩油将会卷土重来，或许会比较缓慢，但我认为，从这段时期汲取的教训之一是，现在就给页岩油写讣告未免为时过早，”比罗尔对《海湾情报》记者如是说。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Global Oil Demand Could Take Years To Recover

Global oil demand will take at least a year--and probably much longer--to return to the pre-crisis levels of 100 million barrels per day (bpd), Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), told Gulf Intelligence in an interview on Wednesday.

The pace at which demand will come back will mostly depend on global economic growth and the possibility of a second wave of COVID-19 infections, which could warrant a return to stricter lockdowns, Birol said.

The IEA said in its April Oil Market Report that the coronavirus pandemic had wiped out a decade of oil demand growth amid the unprecedented lockdown measures in many countries to curb the spreading of the virus. In mid-April, the IEA expected global oil demand to drop by 29 million bpd in April, and by a record 9.3 million bpd year on year in 2020.

April was indeed a ‘black April’ for the oil markets and the industry, Birol told Gulf Intelligence, recalling the first-ever drop of WTI Crude futures into negative territory.

According to Birol, the agency still expects global oil demand to fall this year, despite the lifting of blockades in many countries.

Asked about the fate of the U.S. shale patch, which is reducing oil production for economic reasons due to unsustainably low oil prices, Birol expressed optimism that after the crisis, when demand returns to some form of normality, U.S. shale will rise again.

“Shale will come back, maybe slowly but I think one of the lessons to learn from this period is that it will be too quick to write the obituary of shale oil,” the head of the IEA told Gulf Intelligence.