据今日石油网站报道,COVID-19引发的封锁措施导致了全球石油和天然气需求急剧下降,国际能源署(IEA)估计,5月份全球石油需求可能下降大约26%。
全球知名的数据统计与分析机构GlobalData表示,由于液体储存迅速增加导致了生产终端的利用率降低,从而加剧了价格暴跌,这将对收入和利润率产生重大影响。
以下是GlobalData关于COVID-19对全球石油和天然气行业影响的最新报告的要点:
资本支出调整
●国际石油公司、国家石油公司和独立石油公司都在削减资本支出和运营成本以适应低油价。
●截至今年5月10日,已宣布的削减今年资本支出指导的总金额达到了大约1200亿美元,涉及170家公司。
●削减资本支出主要体现在美国页岩远景区的钻探、项目最终投资决定(FID)的推迟以及勘探预算的削减上。
●迄今为止,主要的FID推迟包括伍德菲伯液化天然气项目、鲁伍马液化天然气项目,以及斯卡伯勒天然气田和Pluto液化天然气扩建项目。
供应链中断
●旨在限制COVID-19传播的限制措施正在阻碍一些进行中的项目的进展,一个主要的例子是毛里塔尼亚和塞内加尔的Tortue液化天然气项目,这个项目被推迟了大约1年。
政府政策应对
●石油输出国组织(欧佩克)和其他主要产油国一致同意削减970万桶/天的石油产量,以抵消减少的需求。
●挪威宣布今年6月削减石油产量25万桶/天,在今年剩余时间里削减石油产量13.4万桶/天,以稳定市场。
●加拿大和加纳是首批计划实施财政刺激以支持本国陷入困境的石油和天然气行业走出低迷的国家。
失业
●缩减勘探和生产活动,关闭石油和天然气厂,这些都导致了服务行业的裁员。
●哈里伯顿公司宣布在德克萨斯州和俄克拉荷马州裁员。
GlobalData说,对上游公司的短期影响包括减产、项目推迟和钻井暂停。
在圭亚那,美国石油巨头埃克森美孚公司表示,该公司目前没有任何立即关闭其在去年12月开始生产石油的丽莎大油田第一阶段开发项目生产的计划。
埃克森美孚公司董事长兼首席执行官达伦·伍兹说:“圭亚那仍然是我们长期增长计划的组成部分,因此是一个高度优先事项。我们在丽莎大油田的第一阶段行动基本上没有受到新冠病毒大流行的影响。我们还控制了大流行对丽莎二期的影响,使该项目如期在2022年启动。”
然而,由于应对COVID-19全球封锁,钻井队作业人员轮换的挑战减缓了斯塔布鲁克区块的钻井活动。
埃克森美孚公司公司预计未来的开发将推迟大约6至12个月,将丽莎大油田的日产75万桶原油的生产目标推迟到2026年。
李峻 编译自 今日石油
原文如下:
CAPEX cuts hit US$120 billion across 170 companies – Guyana offshore pushes on
COVID-19 lockdown measures have brought a sharp drop in global oil and gas demand, with the International Energy Agency estimating that global oil demand could fall by approximately 26 percent this month.
GlobalData says the crash in prices – aggravated by a rapid build in liquids storage that caused lower utilization at the production end – will significantly impact revenue and profit margins.
Here are the highlights from GlobalData’s most recent report on the COVID-19 impact on the oil and gas industry:
Capex realignment
· IOCs, NOCs, and independents are cutting capex and opex in tune with low oil prices.
· Announced cuts to capex guidance for 2020 now amount to around US$120 billion as of 10th May 2020, considering 170 companies.
· Capex cuts are primarily being felt in drilling in the US shale plays, in postponement of project FIDs, and reductions to exploration budgets.
· Major FID postponements to date include Woodfibre LNG, Rovuma LNG, and the Scarborough gas field and Pluto LNG expansion.
Supply chain disruption
· Restrictions aimed at limiting the spread of COVID-19 are hampering progress for some ongoing projects, with a major example being the Tortue LNG project in Mauritania and Senegal, delayed for around 1 year.
Government policy responses
· OPEC and other major producers collectively agreed over 9.7 million bpd of oil production cuts in order to offset reduced demand.
· Norway announced oil production cuts of 250,000 bpd for June 2020 and 134,000 bpd for the rest of the year to stabilize the markets
Canada and Ghana are among the first countries that are planning a fiscal stimulus to support the country’s ailing oil and gas industry from the downturn.
Unemployment
· Shrinking E&P activity and closing oil and gas plants are leading to layoffs in the services industry.
· Halliburton announced job cuts in Texas and Oklahoma.
GlobalData says the short-term impact to upstream companies include production cuts, projects delay and drilling suspension.
In Guyana, US oil major ExxonMobil has said that it has no immediate plans to shut in production at the Liza Phase 1 Development where it began producing oil last December.
“Guyana remains an integral part of our long-term growth plans and as such is a high priority. Our Liza Phase One operations have been largely unaffected by the pandemic. We have also managed the impact on Liza Phase Two, keeping this project on schedule for 2022 start up,” Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Exxon Mobil Corporation, Darren Woods has said.
However, challenges of crew rotations due to the global lockdown in response to COVID-19 have slowed down the drill campaigns at the Stabroek Block.
The company expects a delay in its future developments of roughly 6 to 12 months, pushing its production objective of more than 750,000 barrels per day into 2026.
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