全球石油需求预计将下降11.5％

据钻机地带6月1日消息称，根据雷斯塔能源的最新需求预测，到2020年，全球石油需求将同比下降11.5％，即每天减少1140万桶。

雷斯塔指出，预计今年石油总需求将从去年的约9950万桶/天降至8810万桶/天。5月需求预计将下降20.5%至7850万桶/天，6月需求将触及8400万桶/天。

雷斯塔认为，全球道路燃料总需求将同比下降9.9%，即下降470万桶/天，至4270万桶/天。航空燃油需求预计将同比下降近40.8%，即290万桶/天，至430万桶/天。雷斯塔预测，到2020年，美国的石油总需求将下降11.8%，即240万桶/天，至1810万桶/天，欧洲的石油总需求将下降15.6%，即220万桶/天，至1200万桶/天。

展望2021年，雷斯塔预计石油总需求将反弹至9630万桶/天。明年道路燃料的平均需求预计为4600万桶/天，航空燃料的平均需求预计为620万桶/天。雷斯塔预计，到2021年，美国石油总需求平均为每日1940万桶，欧洲石油总需求平均为每日1320万桶。

雷斯塔先前的需求预测显示，2020年石油需求将减少10.8%，即每日减少1070万桶。道路燃料需求预计同比下降10.8%，即510万桶/天;航空燃料需求预计同比下降近33.6%，即240万桶/天。

曹海斌 摘译自 钻机地带

原文如下：

Oil Demand Expected to Fall 11.5 Percent

Global oil demand will decrease by 11.5 percent, or 11.4 million barrels per day (MMbpd), year on year in 2020, according to Rystad Energy’s latest demand forecast.

Total oil demand is projected to fall to 88.1MMbpd this year from approximately 99.5MMbpd last year, Rystad outlined. May demand is expected to fall by 20.5 percent to 78.5MMbpd and June demand is forecasted to hit 84MMbpd.

Rystad believes total global demand for road fuels will fall by 9.9 percent, or 4.7 MMbpd, year on year to 42.7MMbpd. Jet fuel demand is anticipated to decline by almost 40.8 percent, or 2.9MMbpd, year on year to 4.3MMbpd. Rystad forecasts that in 2020, total oil demand in the United States will fall 11.8 percent, or 2.4MMbpd, to 18.1MMbpd and that total oil demand in Europe will drop by 15.6 percent, or 2.2MMbpd, to 12MMbpd.

Looking ahead to 2021, Rystad expects total oil demand to rebound to 96.3MMbpd. Road fuel demand is expected to average 46MMbpd and jet fuel demand is expected to average 6.2MMbpd next year. Rystad anticipates total oil demand in the U.S. to average 19.4MMbpd and total oil demand in Europe to average 13.2MMbpd in 2021.

Rystad’s previous demand forecast saw oil demand falling by 10.8 percent, or 10.7MMbpd, in 2020. Road fuel demand was anticipated to fall by 10.8 percent, or 5.1MMbpd, year on year and jet fuel demand was projected to drop by almost 33.6 percent, or 2.4Mmbpd, year on year.